Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces explained how to disrupt the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

According to the Daily Mail, referring to the words of General Ryan, the spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can have three scenarios. The first is a large-scale breakthrough, where all the forces and resources accumulated by Kiev independently and received from the West will be thrown into. The second is the division of the available forces into two directions for a simultaneous attack in the east and south. And the third option is to conduct a number of smaller, uncoordinated attacks in different directions.

– Which of these scenarios might be the most likely?

– One strong blow, with the help of the concentration of all the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in order to break through our defenses and go forward 200 km – this, of course, is an adventurous undertaking, – General Chirkin believes.

– But, if they launch such an offensive, we will be able, as they say, on the shoulders of the retreating enemy, to launch our own counteroffensive?

– Yes, the counterattack is carried out in response. But for this, the enemy will first need to be exhausted and turned back to us. Only then will he become a retreat. In the meantime, this enemy is full of determination, he himself has planned the tasks of a further offensive. If he, of course, can go to him.

– Do you doubt that Kyiv is able to prepare a powerful blow and go on the offensive?

– Theoretically it can. But practically… I really doubt it.

– Why? The West actively trained the Ukrainian military and supplied them with weapons.

– A prerequisite for a major offensive must certainly be air superiority. This is the main factor that determines the success of an offensive operation in modern conditions. So it was in local conflicts of recent decades. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have such superiority in the air.

You can remember more distant history. Remember the beginning of the Great Patriotic War, when the German offensive began. Then, at the same time, a powerful blow was organized by the Luftwaffe aviation divisions. Thousands and thousands of planes were flying, breaking through our defenses. And now the Armed Forces of Ukraine have very little aviation. True, they were recently given old Soviet MiG-29s, but half of them cannot take to the air. Ukrainians dismantle them for spare parts.

There are also problems with the training of pilots. In order to reach a normal level of their training, you need to conduct a bunch of exercises, coordinate the crews, and test them in battle. And three months of preparation and forward is all frivolous.

– Yes, but the problem of the lack of aviation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is going to be solved at the expense of long-range artillery systems that the United States supplies them, as well as many drones.

– If the Americans transfer to the Armed Forces a sufficient number of HIMARS missile systems, which hit not only 80 km, but also 150 km, they will be able to replace air strikes to some extent. But in any case, their depth will be limited. In addition, our air defense systems are now working very well on HIMARS. It is practically useless to work on artillery shells, but our air defense systems shoot down HIMARS missiles very successfully.

– At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine with air defense themselves have a problematic situation?

– Yes, they have a limited number of missiles for their own Buk and S-300 complexes – Ukraine does not produce them, they are running out. The air defense systems transferred by the West did not justify the hopes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine either. Even the American Patriot complex, as far as I know, performed rather poorly.

Have they already deployed?

– They say yes. And so far he has not even managed to shoot down a single one of our loitering ammunition.

– It turns out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not risk a single powerful offensive blow now?

– But we won’t get into their heads to find out how they really evaluate their opponent, that is, us. We only know how ready we are to meet such a blow. To what extent our defense is prepared in terms of engineering, what reserves are available …

– Reserves are very important here?

– Reserves are further from the front line. They are located in the depths of defense, so that, if necessary, they can be more easily transferred to the desired direction of attack.

– What about the second option – the possibility of two UAF strikes in the east and south, which General Ryan is talking about?

– This method is usually used in operational art. When the main blow is planned, on which the main efforts of the attacking side will be concentrated, then at the same time a secondary blow is delivered in another direction. This is necessary to mislead the enemy and at the same time disperse his forces. If the advancing side breaks forces into several parts, then thereby weakens its own troops in the main direction of attack.

– And such an option is possible?

– Quite. Moreover, a number of Ukrainian generals still have a Soviet school – they studied using the same textbooks as we do. They think about the same.

– But they now have a lot of NATO advisers there, specifically Americans.

– The United States, by and large, since the Second World War, when they landed troops, opening a second front, have not seriously fought anywhere else. Those of their wars that led to the destruction of states, the United States primarily waged massive air strikes. Demolished not quarters and entire cities. Only at the very last stage, some of the troops were already used for the final cleansing of the territory.

Well, the Americans are in control of the fighting anyway. In fact, they are already doing what the Australian general says. They work in groups in several areas.

– APU bite us here and there. They participate in this – where is the company, where is the battalion. But this is all tactical level. With such forces, even at this level, nothing can be done. As a rule, only reconnaissance in force is carried out in this way in order to open the system of our artillery fire, the defense system.

– So, there remains a third option – several smaller-scale attacks that are not coordinated with each other?

– It’s about how to beat not with a fist, but with spread fingers. You just break them and that’s it. Hitting the enemy in different directions without any interaction is completely ineffective.

In order to launch an offensive on any sector of the front, forces must be concentrated there. Gather them into a fist, creating an advantage over the enemy in manpower at least six to one. And then, having broken through the defense, enter the operational space and develop the offensive. I do not yet see such opportunities in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

– Then it is not clear – will there still be an offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or will everything be limited to conversations? Maybe it’s time for us to attack?

– Of course, I don’t know the plans of our General Staff, but I also served at the strategic level of command at one time, therefore I understand that now it is very desirable to conduct reconnaissance carefully: to determine the areas of concentration of enemy troops, equipment, fuel bases, ammunition and hammer on them. “Daggers” to do this, probably, is not necessary. We have other, less expensive, but also very effective.

– Including on the basis of old unguided bombs? Wings, tails and control and correction modules were put on them, literally turning them into modern high-precision weapons for a penny.

– Certainly. They are now working just fine, without entering the enemy air defense zone. The solution to finalize such bombs is excellent! It always happens in life – everything ingenious is simple. When, with the help of such bombs, ours, for example, blow up a fuel storage facility that was planned for an operation in some direction, the enemy’s desire to plan this operation immediately disappears or is postponed for an indefinite time.

– It turns out that by such actions we can disrupt the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

– Undoubtedly. Or turn it into the very operation that is carried out with spread fingers.