Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Indonesia for ASEAN events

In Indonesia, on July 12, events began with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken were invited – states are not members of the organization. China is represented at the meetings by Wang Yi, head of the office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee (curator of foreign policy), and not by Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who, according to official data from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, fell ill. He has not appeared in public since June 25.

The ASEAN countries themselves held a meeting of foreign ministers on July 12 (who is in ASEAN – see inset). On the same day, the Russian minister met with Wang Yi and his counterpart from Indonesia Retno Marsudi, Laos – Salemsay Kommasit, as well as with ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Horn, to whom he presented a nesting doll with his image. “All previous general secretaries [получали такую матрешку]. These are symbols of our cooperation. But with each Secretary General they are being made bigger and bigger,” Lavrov commented on the gift. After they discussed cooperation in high-tech areas.

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Russian minister in Jakarta will also take part in the meetings of the heads of foreign affairs agencies in the Russia-ASEAN format, the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the ASEAN Regional Security Forum (ARF). There, Lavrov intends, in particular, to promote Russian approaches to “the formation of an equal and inclusive architecture of regional security.” Among the topics announced was the issue of ensuring food and energy security and the transition to settlements in national currencies.

The importance of ASEAN for Russia has increased significantly in recent years, which can be seen even at the conceptual level, notes Alexander Korolev, Deputy Director of the HSE CCEMI. This is obvious when comparing the 2016 foreign policy concept of the Russian Federation, where ASEAN was not even mentioned, with the 2023 document, where the organization took fourth place in the list of important areas of Russian diplomacy.

According to the expert, noticeable changes have also taken place on the economic track: from the dominance of exports from ASEAN countries to Russia over imports from it (70 to 30%) to more balanced trade relations with a ratio of 60 to 40%. Trade between the countries now stands at about $20 billion, Korolev adds.

The main problem in trade is logistics. The situation worsened with the start of the military operation, the expert states. The main direction of purchases of Russia and ASEAN are semiconductors and electronic products. Thus, Russia can partially compensate for the lack of these products by purchasing from Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. On the other hand, the ASEAN countries have become a very promising market for the sale of Russian chemical and agricultural products, the expert emphasizes.

As for the political position, ASEAN continues to adhere to neutrality: in no official document there were statements either in support of Russia or against it, Korolev notes. The positions of individual countries of the alliance were divided: Singapore condemned Russia and joined the sanctions, Cambodia also condemned Moscow. The rest of the countries at the official level, rather, simply do not support Russia, and Vietnam and Laos refrained from supporting UN resolutions condemning its actions.

Recently, ASEAN has been paying more and more attention to such a topic as regional cooperation in the financial sector, says Viktor Sumsky, director of the ASEAN Center at MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry. China and India are already among the partners with which ASEAN members are entering into dialogue about using means of payment alternative to the dollar, Sumsky adds.

Since it has always been unsafe to touch on the topic of de-dollarization, the position of the leaders of the organization cannot be assessed otherwise than as a manifestation of the political will and resilience of ASEAN participants, the expert says. Characteristically, Lavrov, in an interview with Kompas newspaper, emphasized that the interests of practical cooperation between Russia and ASEAN “would meet the launch of consultations on the use of national currencies in mutual settlements.”

The most pressing issue within ASEAN remains the situation in Myanmar, where a military coup took place on February 1, 2021, after which a civil conflict broke out in the country between the military and supporters of the overthrown government. Myanmar’s seat at the ASEAN summits remains vacant for the time being. The organization calls for the implementation of the “Five Point Consensus”, which was adopted in April 2021 with the participation of the Prime Minister of Myanmar, Min Aung Hlain.

The document calls on all parties to the conflict to show maximum restraint, refrain from violent actions and resolve differences through peaceful dialogue. According to Lavrov, assistance in normalizing the situation in Myanmar should be provided without interference in the internal affairs of the country. He added that the efforts of the ASEAN countries towards Myanmar should be based on contacts with the official authorities of the country.

By the summit of ASEAN foreign ministers, where the theme of Myanmar was to become central, the members of this regional organization approached in a state close to a split, says independent expert on Southeast Asian countries Petr Kozma. Two groups have emerged in ASEAN that are fundamentally different in their approaches to resolving the crisis in Myanmar.

On the one hand, there are Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, defending the policy of isolating the military authorities. On the other hand, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos are set up for a pragmatic dialogue with the generals. There is also an undecided group consisting of Brunei and the Philippines. Since decisions in ASEAN are made by consensus, the parties are doomed to seek some sort of compromise, Kozma says. To date, a number of ASEAN members have a quite reasonable proposal to return Myanmar to the work of the organization, especially since most ASEAN countries are by no means beacons of democracy, he concludes.