Foreign goods with surcharge: what will lowering the threshold for duty-free online purchases lead to?

Russians, accustomed to saving on goods from abroad, will be under attack

The Ministry of Finance supported lowering the threshold for duty-free online purchases. This could raise prices in Russia for imported goods over 200 euros by 15–20% starting in April of this year. According to experts, at the moment the opportunity to order goods at a lower price is most relevant for residents of small settlements in the regions – they are the ones who will bear the blow. This will exacerbate social tension, and budget revenues from duties will not amount to significant amounts. According to the survey VTsIOM68% of Russians support the thesis that maintaining a duty-free threshold of 1,000 euros will help support the country’s residents during a difficult period after the departure of Western brands and services.

VTsIOM conducted a study to find out how lowering the threshold for duty-free purchases will affect Russians. According to its results, it turned out that almost half of Russians order goods from abroad through websites – 44%. 14% of Russian marketplace users order goods costing more than 20 thousand rubles (equivalent to 200 euros) for delivery from abroad.

At the same time, 40% of Russians feel their financial situation is worsening, and 72% of respondents expect an increase in prices for goods and services in the next 1–2 months. Despite parallel imports, 62% of respondents believe that not all goods are available to them. Respondents feel the greatest shortage in the following categories: accessories and components for gadgets and cars (32%), household appliances and electronics (27%), as well as shoes, clothing, accessories (20%).

Some experts also point to a serious increase in prices for consumer goods in Russia in 2023. They believe that this could also be one of the reasons for Russians to order expensive goods from abroad at a lower price (the difference, they say, can be up to 20%). At the same time, raising the threshold will lead to the fact that a lot of work will fall on the shoulders of intermediaries (logistics companies, customs brokers), which must be paid for. The quoted figures vary, but on average, experts predict an increase in prices for foreign goods by 15% when the threshold is lowered to 200 euros.

In general, 68% of respondents support the thesis that maintaining a duty-free threshold of 1,000 euros will help support Russians during a difficult period after the departure of Western brands and services. Among users of marketplaces that deliver goods from abroad, this figure is higher – 77%.

At the same time, experts believe that if the duty-free import threshold is lowered, the amount of contributions to the federal budget will be an insignificant share (estimated at 0.002% of the 2024 budget), and the resources spent by the Federal Customs Service on administering collection processes will increase significantly. And lowering the threshold will lead to higher prices, higher inflation rates and will limit Russians’ access to rare goods. VTsIOM cites the opinion that most experts believe that the crisis moment has not yet passed and a return to the threshold of 200 euros will only bring negative consequences for all participants: consumers, government and business.

Several experts expressed the opinion that lowering the threshold for duty-free import of goods will increase social tension, which is caused by the current rise in prices and the deterioration of the financial situation of Russians. At the moment, the opportunity to order goods at a lower price is most relevant for residents of small settlements in the regions – they are the ones who will bear the blow, experts say.

Let us remind you that until 2019, the threshold for duty-free import of goods was 1000 euros, then the norm was reduced several times, since January 2020 it was 200 euros. In April 2022, the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) temporarily returned the threshold to the level of 1,000 euros; this period was extended several times, most recently until April of this year. From April 1, the ceiling should drop to the original 200 euros.