For the first time, a candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation risks not taking second place in the presidential election

For the first time in the post-Soviet history of the Russian Federation, a candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation risks not taking second place in the presidential election. This conclusion was reached by the authors of the report “Candidates at the Start: Positions, Resources, Potential”, prepared by the Progressive Policy Foundation (PPF). According to its authors, the nomination of the “weak” Nikolai Kharitonov is due to the upcoming transfer of power in the Communist Party and the reluctance of its leader Gennady Zyuganov to strengthen any of the possible successors. Third place could become a “cold shower” for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which will radicalize the Communists and speed up the process of party renewal, experts say. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, however, has no doubt about the second place in the final standings.

The director of the FPP, Oleg Bondarenko, who presented the report, explained that after the Central Election Commission refused to register Boris Nadezhdin (see Kommersant on February 8), the main intrigue of the campaign came down to who would take second and third places. Let us remind you that there will be four candidates on the ballot: current President Vladimir Putin and three State Duma deputies – Nikolai Kharitonov (Communist Party of the Russian Federation), Leonid Slutsky (LDPR) and Vladislav Davankov (New People).

In all previous presidential elections in the Russian Federation, the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation was second. And from this point of view, according to Mr. Bondarenko, the nomination of the 75-year-old deputy Kharitonov is “extremely unsuccessful” for the party: in recent years he has not been distinguished by political activity, “has always been in the deep shadow” of Gennady Zyuganov and “a dozen other communists,” and due to his age, “cannot be regarded as a bright politician.” “The implication is that the nuclear electorate will believe in him and he will take the “legitimate second place.” But we don’t even see such a possibility,” said the political scientist.

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has many “strong and bright” politicians, but among the reasons that forced them to choose the “weakest possible” candidate, the expert sees first of all his “security”: “He does not claim to be the chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Let’s not forget that at the end of this year, or perhaps at the beginning of 2025, a reporting and election congress of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation should take place, at which Gennady Zyuganov will have to give up his place to the new chairman. “Zyuganov turns 80 this June, and in this sense, yes, Kharitonov cannot lay claim to the status of a successor under any circumstances.”

Nikolai Kharitonov has to copy the leftist agenda, which “has ceased to be just the agenda of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation – it is already part of the power agenda,” Oleg Bondarenko continued: “His main problem, besides his age and lack of face, is the lack of his own program, which sounds scary for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Kharitonov has nothing that is not in the speeches of Putin, Slutsky and even Davankov; he is not exclusive in any way.” The head of the FPP recalled that, according to the latest data from VTsIOM (an initiative all-Russian telephone survey of 1.6 thousand respondents was held on February 8, the error was no more than 2.5%), the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is inferior to the candidate of the “New People” (5%) and shares third with the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (4% each). “This is a very alarming bell,” the expert warned. “There is a risk that Nikolai Kharitonov will compete not for second, but for third place.” Although “strategically” this could turn out to be a victory for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, oddly enough, since it will push the party’s Areopagus to “change something fundamentally,” the political scientist concluded.

The analysis of the left flank was continued by RANEPA professor Sergei Serebrennikov. He stated that the refusal of the Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) party to nominate its candidate in favor of supporting Vladimir Putin is a dubious move from a technological point of view, since it “weakens the very possibility of conveying the ideologies” of its program. And now the nuclear electorate of the SRZP will vote for Vladimir Putin. The presidential election program has not yet been made public, but it can already be concluded that it will be focused “on the continuation and successful completion of the Northern Military District, a new sense of the “Crimean consensus,” on Russia looking to the future, the Year of the Family – all this is close to leftist ideology,” continued Mr. Serebrennikov. Therefore, in the victory of candidate Putin, “the left, socialist-oriented voter will be one of the main cores,” and even the voter of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation “will partially cast their votes for Putin, without finding a proper reflection of their interests in the theses and ideologies of Nikolai Kharitonov,” he concluded.

President of the Center for Regional Policy Development Ilya Grashchenkov discussed the chances of Vladislav Davankov for second place. The candidate from the “New People” has the most serious potential for expanding the electorate, since he is young, and many will vote for him “on the principle of difference,” the expert is sure. In addition, only Mr. Davankov’s agenda includes “peacefulness,” “normalization,” and even “a return to friendship with the West,” Mr. Grashchenkov emphasized: “Both the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party are “hawks” in this sense, they are even more radical than Putin.”

The report was concluded by political observer of the Aurora news agency Fyodor Biryukov, who analyzed the chances of Leonid Slutsky for second place. He called the leader of the LDPR “the most interesting, complex and sad” candidate in these elections, who was “simply unlucky”: “He turned out to be the leader of the LDPR by accident, because Vladimir Zhirinovsky died.” Mr. Biryukov recalled that different candidates were considered for the role of the new leader, but “the mission, like a stalker, to lead the party through the period of darkness” went to Mr. Slutsky, who must “ensure the survival of the party.” “Last place in the election will raise the question: why is it needed?” – the expert warned.

Analyzing the electorate of the Liberal Democrats, Mr. Biryukov proposed deciphering the abbreviation LDPR as “Loyalists, Democrats, Patriots, Radicals.” According to him, supporters of the recently convicted Igor Strelkov, “angry patriots”, and even partly relocants are ready to vote for Leonid Slutsky – “people who want movement.” “Kharitonov jokes better, but Slutsky can really fight for second place,” the expert stated.

First Deputy Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Yuri Afonin told Kommersant that the “reasonings and speculations” of the authors of the report surprise him: “Chairman (Gennady Zyuganov.— “Kommersant”) was elected unanimously by the congress and plenum, there are no issues related to the change of leader at all.” He called the nomination of Nikolai Kharitonov “completely conscious and thoughtful,” which is confirmed by his election trips: “There is a lot of interest, and campaign materials are actively being produced, and Kharitonov looks bright and interesting.” “According to all the polls where they are conducted by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and this is a cross-section of the entire country, in no region there is practically no such thing that Kharitonov is losing second position to someone,” Mr. Afonin emphasized. “All these ratings, where Davankov is higher, and that They are trying to deceive Slutsky – this is completely inconsistent with sociology, this is manipulation.” According to the communist, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will control “that the elections are held transparently,” but he has no doubts about the second place of its candidate.

The SRZP did not answer Kommersant’s questions.

Andrey Prah