Fatal warning: the West predicted a “hard” winter for Ukrainian troops

American sources are skeptical about Kyiv’s chances for next year

Ukrainian troops face a “tough” winter and a difficult year ahead as Western intelligence estimates little movement on the front line is expected in the coming months, two Western officials and a senior U.S. military official told CNN.

In the near term, Western intelligence agencies expect Russia to expand its attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure, CNN notes.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ progress on the battlefield has been slow in recent weeks, with Ukrainian troops moving forward limited to just one mile in some areas and several miles in others, the American channel states. Western intelligence estimates indicate that the front line is unlikely to change much in the coming months.

One remaining factor hampering the Ukrainian counteroffensive is the lack of airpower to support ground operations. The F-16 fighters promised by NATO are not expected to arrive soon enough or in significant enough numbers to change the dynamics of the battle for some time, and some estimates suggest it will take much of next year before that firepower can have an effect.

Looking ahead to 2024, NATO allies fear Russia could attempt a broader offensive.

“On the other hand,” a senior Western official told CNN, “Ukraine will have the defensive advantage, and they are very tough on it.”

But Western intelligence estimates warn that progress on the battlefield could stall until 2024, pushing the situation closer to a “frozen conflict” that many observers in the West fear plays into Moscow’s hands.

The Russian leadership is also believed to be factoring the 2024 US presidential election into its military planning. CNN reported in August that the US does not yet have clear intelligence on the matter, but next year’s US elections remain a key factor that senior Western national security, intelligence and diplomatic officials believe will influence the Kremlin’s decisions on Ukraine, making more it is less likely that the conflict will be resolved before the end of next year.

The harsh assessment comes as the White House issues warnings about the US’s ability to support the Ukrainians without Congressional approval of additional aid.

Amid ongoing negotiations in Congress over possible ways to provide funding to Ukraine and Israel along with changes to border policy, the White House warned Thursday that the “runway is getting shorter” and that it will have difficulty supporting Kiev if it doesn’t Additional funding will be approved.

“Again, as I have said many times, the runway is getting shorter. And we think we have time, you know, until about the end of the year before it becomes really, really difficult to continue to support Ukraine. And the end of the year is approaching,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.

He also said: “We didn’t pull these numbers out of thin air. We need this funding.”