Faced with the risk of shortages, the government is betting on energy sobriety to ward off coercive measures
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Will we see, this winter, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister for Energy Transition, make a point regularly on television as his counterpart in health had done during the pandemic of Covid-19? The idea, suggested by some energy experts who plead for public awareness, could gain ground. “It’s one track among others”says one in the entourage of the minister, who does not however want to panic the crowds before the start of the school year.
“The difficulties will be more or less acute according to three parameters”, we list in the cabinet of Agnès Pannier-Runacher. First, the weather. What will the weather be ? If the season turns out to be very cold and long, the energy needs, especially for heating, will obviously not be of the same order.
Next, what will be the state of our gas supply? Beyond the stocks which now reach 80% – and which represent around a quarter of French consumption – will the supply via the pipelines hold? Knowing that these pipes, especially from Norway, the largest supplier, are not extensible. Finally, what will be the availability of the nuclear fleet? Here again, uncertainty dominates. Will EDF have the capacity to maintain its work trajectory in order to restart some of its shutdown reactors?
“In the event of a winter peak, difficulties would arise at the same time, in gas and in electricity, it is pointed out in the minister’s office; hence the importance of having scenarios for anticipating a degraded situation coupling the two energies in September. This will allow us to determine the critical points and the best trade-offs to take. »
To this end, the plan concocted by the government promises to be gradual, with several milestones depending on the urgency of the situation. With, in the first place, measures based on sobriety and the voluntary withdrawal of economic actors from the network in exchange for remuneration, then – in the event of “orange vigilance” and even as a very last resort –, will come actions of rationing of the consumption of gas and finally cuts which can concern both gas and electricity.
Ecowatt, the “Smart Bison” of the electricity network
“This plan aims to avoid as much as possible coercive measures, such as rationing and of course load shedding”, However, we defend ourselves within the ministry.
To this end, the sobriety plans, which leave the opposition very skeptical, aim for a 10% drop in consumption within two years. In this context, several working groups have been set up around the company and the organization of work, supermarkets, administrations, digital technology and especially housing in order to identify the roadmap to follow in order to achieve imminent and longer-term downside targets. Others will be launched at the start of the school year, under the leadership of the Minister of Sports and his transport counterpart. With global results presented at the end of September or at the very beginning of October.
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