Extreme heat hit southern Europe

As a result of the “thermal explosion”, the temperature in the European Mediterranean could jump up to 50 degrees Celsius in the coming days. The culprit of the abnormal heat will be the North African anticyclone “Charon”, named after the character of ancient Greek mythology – the carrier of souls to the underworld.

The last temperature record was recorded in Sicily in August 2021, when the thermometer reached 48.8 degrees. In some parts of Italy, temperatures of 48 degrees Celsius can be observed in the coming days, in Greece and Spain – 40 degrees and above. In 2022, high temperatures caused 60,000 deaths in the EU countries. Wildfires have been blazing in Greece, Spain and Turkey for several days. On July 19, the Russian Emergencies Ministry announced a decision to send two Be-200 firefighting aircraft to help Turkey.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), such abnormally high temperatures have a chance to become the new normal in the face of global warming. According to the WMO, July in Europe was the hottest week on record after the warmest June on record. Among all parts of the world in recent times, warming has been the fastest in Europe, the WMO points out.

In Europe, there is indeed a negative trend towards an increase in the frequency of weather anomalies caused by an increase in emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, said Alexander Nakhutin, head of the department at the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology. To stop these dangerous processes, according to the expert, only a rapid and sustainable reduction in CO2 emissions can, and until then, humanity will have to adapt to climate change by adapting the technical infrastructure and medical measures. “For example, already today Europeans should revise building codes and build roofs of houses adapted to the maximum wind force,” the expert said.

These climatic processes, Nakhutin continues, will have a negative impact on European agriculture. “Global warming is affecting rainfall patterns, with some arid regions becoming drier, while other regions have increased rainfall. In addition, there is a decrease in the area of ​​glaciers in mountainous areas, and this changes the water content of European rivers for the worse,” the expert added.

Global warming is a serious challenge for the European energy sector, says Vyacheslav Kulagin, head of the Center for the Study of World Energy Markets at the Institute for Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “It would seem that heat can increase energy generation in solar panels. In fact, at high temperatures, electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), on the contrary, decreases. On the other hand, the demand for minerals for the operation of air conditioning systems is growing,” the expert noted. The anticyclone, which brought the heat, is accompanied by calm. Wind turbines were able to provide only 9.4% of Europe’s electricity needs on July 18, the WindEurope association said. Last weekend, their contribution rose above 20%, and on July 17 – up to 16.7%.

Although in the current situation, Kulagin continues, there is no shortage of fuel, the trend towards the development of renewable energy in Europe in the future creates tangible risks in the energy balance. “Energy generation with the help of RES does not always coincide with the periods of supply and demand. If in the previous configuration of the European energy system the weather factor played an insignificant role, now, with the growth of RES volumes, the risk of climate uncertainty for the energy sector is growing in parallel, the expert noted. “The problem of sustainability and redundancy of energy capacities has appeared in the European energy system so that in a force majeure situation there is no problem of meeting demand.”

The restructuring of the energy system will also result in increased volatility in the global oil and gas market, Kulagin continues. According to the expert, if 15 years ago energy prices were relatively stable due to the seasonal factor, today, depending on the situation, sharp jumps and falls in prices can be observed. “The need for balancing becomes more serious when thermal generation moves from a stable load to work to cover peaks in energy consumption,” Kulagin notes. At present, the Europeans, according to the expert, prefer to put into operation renewable energy sources, and keep fossil energy in reserve for safety. “We need to keep reserve capacities that have not been working for a long time. And to have double capacity means to have double costs,” Kulagin believes. The result of this policy, the expert is sure, will be the curbing of economic growth, because the additional demand for energy resources to cover the increased load on the energy system ultimately increases the costs of households and enterprises for electricity.