Experts warned about the rise in prices for rice in Russia by 15-20%

Already by this autumn, the price of rice in the world may double. Well-known economist Andrey Bunich thinks so. The reason for such a sharp rise in prices is India, which will close its exports and leave everything inside the country. But when did it happen that our domestic prices did not follow the world ones? Surely the rice fever will ricochet to Russia as well. So what can our fellow citizens expect and isn’t it time to stock up on this old habit?

India, like Russia, is also struggling with its own inflation. As the world’s largest rice exporter, local producers focus on exports, where prices are higher. As a result, prices in the domestic Indian market are rising. To slow down the acceleration of inflation, the Indian government plans to ban the export of this product to foreign markets.

How can this come back to haunt Russia?

In our country, the most popular cereals are not barley oatmeal, but rice and buckwheat. They are, in fact, like twin brothers. First of all, we stock them up for a “rainy day”, when there are risks of a rise in the price of products. Yes, and we consume these cereals in approximately the same volumes.

The only difference is that nobody in the world except Russia grows buckwheat, it is purely our national product. There is no need to rely on import purchases, as they say, you reap what you sow.

Perhaps for this reason, the situation with buckwheat and consumer prices for it is usually stable. According to the June report of Rosstat, prices for this cereal (against the background of a general rise in price) decreased by an average of 2.4%. We do not rely on the fact that someone there will start deliveries of goods through parallel or some other import in case of a crop failure. It’s physically impossible.

With rice, the situation is different. Last month, its average price was 110 rubles per kilogram, although you could see 180-200 rubles on the shelf. Russian farmers mainly grow short-grain rice, which is not very popular with buyers. From it you can cook rice porridge, something else undemanding. But for real pilaf and other delicacies, long-grain rice is required. We do not grow it, but we buy it in the countries of Southeast Asia – in India, Vietnam, Thailand.

This is where the leapfrog begins when the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Agriculture and Food form a portfolio of import purchases – there is a drought and crop failure, here – heavy rains and crop failure too … Or, as in India – the fight against inflation, as a result of which the whole world may not be able to count rice, and prices it jumps up sharply.

Many experts are sure that if the Russians ate only those products that are not produced anywhere (like our buckwheat), then we would have plenty of everything and prices would not rise.

So what can we expect if Russia loses Indian rice imports?

As always, our government is ahead of schedule, taking into account all possible natural and political disasters. Rice has just been sown this year, and a decree has already been issued to ban its export until the end of the year. The entire crop must remain in the country for domestic needs.

There are other reasons for this, and not only the situation in India. The domestic Ministry of Agriculture has set the task of obtaining 1.2 million tons of rice this year. With a large supply, as they say, just in case of a fire, because we consume about 600-700 thousand tons.

According to Igor Abakumov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, host of the Rural Hour program, rice fields have survived in Crimea. This crop was resumed for cultivation only a year ago, although in Soviet times the peninsula was considered one of the main rice-growing regions. The destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station did not affect the rice fields in the Crimea, the water level in the North Crimean Canal, which feeds the irrigation system of the peninsula, is sufficient, the expert claims.

And yet, the goal set by the agricultural department, most likely, will not be achieved: in the Krasnodar Territory – the main supplier of this crop – the Fedorovskaya dam, which feeds the rice fields, has not yet been restored. In 2022, it was destroyed twice: in April and after repairs – in May.

It is possible that, following the rise in world prices for rice, they will rise in Russia as well. According to some experts, by 15-20 percent, if we add our annual inflation here.

No, this is an unreliable business – international cooperation, and import dependence is generally a disaster. Will we start—and when—growing our own long-grain rice to become 100 percent self-sufficient?

As the executive director of the National Rice Union, Mikhail Radchenko, told us, next year an experiment will be carried out in the Krasnodar Territory – for the first time, about 10% of their fields will be sown with this crop.

Down and Out trouble started