Experts spoke about the impact of the special operation on the elections in the regions

Under the conditions of the special operation, voters have become more conservative and are more likely to support the current government. In this regard, many heads of regions running for re-election may improve their results compared to those they had in the elections in 2018. This is stated in the report of the Civil Society Development Fund (ForGO) “EDG-2023: an overview of campaigns and prediction of results. According to experts, the “new normality” levels out, “or even completely nullifies the negative that stuck to the chapters over the past years and which was relevant in the previous reality.”

Experts note that the key difference between the 2023 election campaign and those that took place after the return of direct elections of governors is a radical change in the agenda associated with the conduct of a special operation and the adaptation of citizens to a new reality. They define the specifics of the elections as a “new normal”, which combines this adaptation and the work of the authorities to maintain stability and acceptable levels of social indicators. In the electoral aspect, there is a tendency when the behavior of social groups in elections becomes more loyalist, providing an advantage to the government and its candidates, since voters see their support as a guarantee of maintaining stability, the report notes.

The “new normality” stands on three pillars – ideological, socio-economic and electoral-political, associated with a delayed choice, Konstantin Kostin, head of the FORGO, notes: “It is clear that the stability of these structures is constantly in dynamics, as new challenges appear.” Now it is difficult to say when the situation will begin to noticeably change, he adds: “The situation with the Crimean consensus lasted for several years.”

The situation of a delayed choice suggests that voters act according to the logic “Now is not the time for disputes and disagreements,” says Kostin: “At the same time, any serious negative dynamics in each of the areas can lead to the fact that the delayed choice will be converted into claims and competitive scenarios. “. The effect of the “new normal” will last until the end of the special operation, says ForGO expert Vitaly Ivanov.

All campaigns for the election of governors are held in a “technocratic style”, when the current heads of regions are engaged in day-to-day work and are not distracted by election events, experts say. This year, in 17 out of 21 regions, heads are going for re-election, and for the first time, heads of regions who graduated from the “school of governors” are re-elected – there are 10 of them.

The experience of past campaigns showed that interim heads of regions encountered difficulties less often than those who ran for re-election. For 11 years, only one candidate from the authorities in the position of acting head of Primorye – Andrei Tarasenko – resigned in 2018 after the abolition of elections in the region, while four current heads of regions lost the elections at once (in the Irkutsk region in 2015, in the Vladimir region, Khabarovsk Territory and Khakassia in 2018).

In 2017–2021 22 heads of regions went for re-election, and if three lost (in 2018), then 16 heads had worse results than in previous elections (the results were improved, for example, by Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov).

At the same time, in 2022, when the special operation was already underway, out of the six re-elected heads of regions, three governors immediately improved their results compared to 2017. The governors of the Novgorod and Sverdlovsk regions, respectively, Andrey Nikitin (+9.04%) and Evgeny Kuyvashev (+3.62%), and the head of Karelia Artur Parfenchikov (+7.81%), with considerable difficulty established “electoral control” over regional centers . There were long-term elite conflicts in these three regions, but in the end, when re-elected, these heads improved their results.

According to the FORGO, Sobyanin, Andrei Vorobyov (Moscow region), Sergei Tsivilev (Kemerovo region), Gleb Nikitin (Nizhny Novgorod region) can improve their results compared to previous years in the current elections. “Two-thirds of the current heads of regions running for re-election can improve the results. You can add here Andrey Travnikov (Novosibirsk region), Alexander Moor (Tyumen region), Stanislav Voskresensky (Ivanovo region),” says Ivanov.

At the same time, 11 out of 21 heads of regions and acting regions do not have circumstances that could complicate re-election (Amur, Voronezh, Ivanovo, Kemerovo, Magadan, Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Novosibirsk, Pskov, Tyumen regions, Moscow).

The head of the Altai Territory, Viktor Tomenko, had the lowest result in the 2018 AUG – 53.6%; in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, acting head Mikhail Kotyukov has an ambiguous legacy from his predecessor, the success of the Liberal Democratic Party in the local elections in Krasnoyarsk in 2018 and the nomination of a relatively strong LDPR candidate Alexander Gliskov now; in the Samara region, the governor Dmitry Azarov has such a factor as the unexpected victory of the candidate from the Communist Party in the Duma elections in the Industrial District, and others, experts say.

At the start of the election campaign, there were threats to the heads of the Altai and Primorsky Territories, the Oryol Region and Yakutia in connection with the nomination of strong candidates from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation or other opposition parties. But in the end, in the Altai Territory, State Duma deputy Maria Prusakova did not pass the municipal filter.

In Yakutia, the leader of the local communists, Viktor Gubarev, was nominated from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, who “cannot count on significant support from the Yakut electorate itself.” In Primorye, a candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation was not nominated, and A Just Russia did not nominate a candidate in the Oryol region. As for Khakassia, experts predict a second round with great confidence and note that the head of the region, Valentin Konovalov (KPRF), is also affected by the effect of the “new normal”.

As for elections to legislative assemblies and councils of administrative centers, United Russia can strengthen its positions in Khakassia, Ulyanovsk, Irkutsk and Yaroslavl regions, NAO, Arkhangelsk. In Kalmykia, Yakutia, the Trans-Baikal Territory, Veliky Novgorod and Krasnoyarsk, the prospects are less clear.

In Krasnoyarsk, the Liberal Democratic Party is strong, in the capital of Kalmykia, Elista, there are problems with public utilities, in Yakutia there are forest fires, a weak domestic political bloc and a regional branch, strained relations between the leadership of the republic and Yakutsk. Problems similar to Yakutia are in Transbaikalia. And in Veliky Novgorod, Andrey Nikitin, the governor and secretary of the regional branch of United Russia, has low involvement in the campaign.

The political system as a whole is in a state of autoshock, the independence of the players is severely limited by emergency measures, as well as competition, although it is higher this year than last, says political analyst Alexander Kynev. He also does not rule out that the heads of regions can improve the results compared to 2018, but notes that competitors are not campaigning very much: “Accordingly, their voters have no motivation to come to the polls. There are no alternative mobilization centers for gubernatorial elections, although they partially exist for legislative assembly elections.” Khakassia, on the other hand, cannot be adjusted to a common denominator, says Kynev.

Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the Petersburg Politics Foundation, agrees that voters are becoming more conservative and tend to support the incumbent authorities, which is why incumbent governors can improve their results compared to previous elections. “There is a deconcentration of protest activity and a decrease in expectations from politics as a place from which change can be initiated,” he says.