Experts see no prospects for Brazilian protests

There are no prospects for the development of protests in Brazil, these are non-systemic riots and a “splash of emotions,” Vice Speaker of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev told Vedomosti.

“At the time of the inauguration [президента] Luis Inacio Lula da Silva [1 января] I was in Brazil and saw everything with my own eyes – there was not a trace of any unrest. What happened now is difficult to explain and, from my point of view, unsystematic. This is a certain group that at some point led the crowd, ”he said.

Protests in Brazil started against the backdrop of dissatisfaction with the results of the presidential election. On October 31, the former president of the country (2003-2010), candidate from the socialist Workers’ Party, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, following the results of the second round of voting, became the new president of Brazil, defeating the incumbent head of state, Jair Bolsonaro. January 1 was the inauguration of the President.

8 January Bolsonaro’s supporters invaded to the Congress building, the Federal Supreme Court and the working residence of the head of state – the Planaltu Palace. In connection with the protests, da Silva declared a state of emergency in the capital of the country until the end of January. More than 400 people were detained during the riots. Following this, the Supreme Court of Brazil dismissed from the post of Governor of the Capital Federal District, Ibanez Roshu, citing the “inaction” of local authorities for this decision.

According to Kosachev, two factors influence the situation in Brazil. The first is the very significant polarization of society and circles of support for the two presidential candidates, da Silva and Bolsonaro. Their political programs are radically different from each other, and the society is divided, he noted.

The second factor is that the elections ended with da Silva’s minimal advantage, with a difference of 1-2%. Such a small gap “provokes the temptation for the losing side” to question the election results, Kosachev said, although no serious irregularities were found in the vote count. “Bolsonaro himself distanced himself from this protest. There are no development prospects for this situation, from my point of view. This is an outburst of emotions in an unpleasant form that does not correspond to the democratic foundations of Brazil, ”said the Vice Speaker of the Federation Council.

The country is split, agrees Vladimir Davydov, director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Bolsonaro has many supporters, on his side are radical provocateurs who decided to oppose the coming to power of the new administration. And the former president himself does not take measures to neutralize the confrontation, the expert notes.

“Some flashes are still possible in the near future, but there is confidence that the confrontation will gradually be neutralized. This is due to the fact that the armed forces of Brazil remain and will remain loyal to the Constitution and supporters of democratic institutions. This is the real situation. I think they will respond to the call of the newly elected president to restore order in the capital and other major centers of the country,” Davydov told Vedomosti.