Experts predicted the results of the 2023 elections, taking into account the “new normal”
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Most of the current governors will not only be successfully re-elected in September, but will also demonstrate a better result compared to 2018. Such a forecast is given by the Civil Society Development Foundation (FORGO) in its report on the specifics of regional elections in 2023. Experts explain their conclusions with the “new normal”: consolidation against the background of external pressure makes the behavior of the main social groups more conservative and loyalist, providing an advantage to candidates from power. But this phenomenon is temporary and largely dependent on the current status quo, the study authors warn.
During past campaigns, interim governors have experienced less difficulty than their counterparts who are re-elected for a new term, according to the FORGO report “EDG-2023: Campaign Review and Forecast of Results.” So, over the past ten years, not a single newly appointed interim has lost the election (Andrey Tarasenko himself resigned in Primorsky Krai in 2018 after the election results were canceled by the Central Election Commission), the authors of the study indicate. On the other hand, four acting governors immediately lost to the opposition: in the Irkutsk region in 2015, in the Vladimir region, Khabarovsk Territory and Khakassia – in 2018. In addition, 16 of the 22 heads of regions who have been re-elected over the past five years have worsened their results compared to previous elections, while only three (including Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov) have been able to improve.
However, already in 2022, there was a breakdown of this trend, the report notes: of the six re-elected governors, three improved their results compared to 2017 at once, although all had problems at the start, which, as is commonly believed, should have complicated their re-election.
Experts explain this by the fact that under the conditions of a special military operation, voters have become more conservative, more restrained, value stability more and are more likely to support the current government in the person of the head of the region, even if they have some claims against him.
The “new normality” levels out, or even completely nullifies, the negative that “sticks” to the governor in previous years and could harm under normal conditions, the researchers explain, calling this phenomenon a “delayed choice” factor.
It follows from this that the September 2023 elections will most likely end not just with the re-election of the majority of the 17 current leaders: as ForGO experts suggest, more than half of them can count on a better result than in 2018. But this phenomenon is temporary and largely depends on the current status quo and its dynamics, the authors of the report stipulate. As a separate factor, they single out a decrease in the level of competitive activity on the part of opposition parliamentary parties, whose leaders “are aware of the excess of this activity in the current situation.”
Of course, according to researchers, those heads of regions whose re-election was initially not complicated by anything, such as Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, Governor of the Moscow Region Andrei Vorobyov, heads of the Kemerovo and Nizhny Novgorod regions Sergey Tsivilev and Gleb Nikitin, have more significant chances to improve their results, according to researchers. However, experts warn, one should not be surprised if those who were “burdened by the burden of previous mistakes and omissions” can add. And even the head of Khakassia, communist Valentin Konovalov, who has a strong opponent in the person of the State Duma deputy nominated by United Russia, Sergei Sokol, has good chances for the second round, despite “virtually zero leadership qualities and general failure as a manager,” the report says. After all, the effect of the “new normal” also applies to him as the current leader: many voters will vote for him as the bearer of power, choosing stability in him. “This paradox is the dark side of the ‘new normal’,” ForGO experts state.
Also, they are sure, United Russia gets a good opportunity to restore or at least strengthen its position in Khakassia, Irkutsk and Ulyanovsk regions and Arkhangelsk, where it lost in 2018 elections to regional parliaments or city assemblies of administrative centers. Then the results of the vote were affected by dissatisfaction with the pension reform, remind the authors of the report. But now the agenda is completely different, besides, governors have changed in many subjects, and there is reason to believe that the new leaders managed to at least partially melt the negative that their predecessors accumulated and which was reflected in the results of United Russia, experts summarize.
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