Experts named goods that will rise in price from the fall of the ruble: how to save income

Price tags in stores will increase at a time when the authorities will announce a record fall in inflation

Since the beginning of this year, the ruble has depreciated by almost 20% against the dollar. It is curious that a third of this fall occurred in April: in the first week, the national currency’s drawdown exceeded 8%. While analysts are talking about when the Russians will see the dollar at 85 rubles, the process of rising prices for goods has gradually begun. The first “swallows” to report a 10% increase in prices were car dealers of foreign cars. Then furniture sellers warned about a similar rise in price. What other types of goods can rise in price due to the fall of the ruble, experts told MK.

Furniture may increase in price by 10-15% by the end of the second quarter. Such a forecast was given by the general director of a large furniture company, Sergei Shikhov. Among the factors that influence this process, he called the complexity of logistics, the low level of availability of spare parts from European countries, as well as the growth of the dollar and the euro. “The strengthening of the currency, which began at the end of last year and is steadily increasing, directly affects the costs of Russian companies,” the merchant explained. The entrepreneur is not alone in his findings. Businessmen selling foreign vehicles in Russia also pointed out that the reason for the 10% increase in the cost of foreign vehicles was the strong change in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and the euro in March and April of this year.

Of course, the process of price increase will not be limited to furniture and foreign cars. “Real estate will definitely rise in price, as will services: dentistry, tourism, medicine,” says Yulia Korchagina-Ozjan, founder of the Academy of Business and Strategic Marketing. – The entire construction industry: varnishes, paints, tiles and everything else. As well as food: milk, cheeses, fish, meat, eggs. Growth in prices for clothing and footwear will be slightly less noticeable, since much in this area depends on the production and the company. The price of electronics will also increase by 10-20%, the expert is sure. However, there are other opinions on this matter. “With regard to electronics, the rise in prices for some groups of goods may be held back by low demand with high supply,” says Sergey Solovykh, head of the department for working with wealthy clients at Fontvielle Investment Company. – In particular, this applies to smartphones and tablets of the middle price category. In addition, equipment quickly becomes obsolete, so sellers may seek to sell it at the old prices as soon as possible.” In his opinion, goods with a limited shelf life, such as food, will be the first to feel the effect of the weakening of the ruble. Sellers will soon be forced to buy new products, taking into account changes in the exchange rate, and will increase prices for previous batches to compensate for this effect.

“A limited number of suppliers to the Russian market will continue to appear, which may enter into an oligopolistic collusion to sell at prices higher than shipping prices to other countries,” Evgeny Mironyuk, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments, continues the conversation. “For example, this can manifest itself in the pharmaceuticals segment.” In the future, if the ruble does not strengthen its position against the dollar, the cost of equipment and spare parts imported into the country may rise. This will increase the costs of Russian producers and provoke an increase in prices for domestic products.

According to Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, decorative cosmetics and perfumes, as well as children’s goods, with the exception of clothes and shoes, may rise in price, since friendly China strongly dominates this segment, and there are almost no Russian competitors.

“All this will lead to an increase in inflation: it is difficult to say what percentage it will be, in general, it can reach 10-12%,” Korchagina-Ozcan believes. This forecast is completely opposite to what the authorities expect. According to Rosstat, by the beginning of April, inflation dropped to 3.5%, although a month earlier it was fixed at 10.9%. Moreover, from the high stands they make it clear that in the near future the situation will become even better: by the end of April, inflation will be below 3%. It is curious that all this will most likely take place against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar: forecasts have already appeared that by the end of this month its rates will be more than 85 rubles.

Of course, there is no magic in the reduction of inflation declared by the authorities – a simple mathematical effect. In statistics, this is called the “high base effect”, that is, the level from which the authorities consider price increases this year is associated with their abnormal rise in the past due to the situation in the spring of 2022. As far as Russia is a unique country, now everyone can be convinced by watching the increase in price tags in stores at a time when the authorities will announce a record fall in inflation.

So what to do? According to Milchakova, Russians can save their income in three ways. First, put rubles on deposit in a reliable bank at a high interest rate, which can overtake inflation (at 6-8% per annum), until banks begin to sharply reduce rates. By the way, the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov gave similar advice to the Russians: in the last published interview, he said that he himself keeps his savings in this way. Secondly, citizens can place part of their funds in protective assets – for example, in gold, government bonds or shares of highly reliable issuers, especially on the eve of the announcement of dividends for last year or the second half of last year. Thirdly, you can exchange rubles for a currency (for example, for yuan) and put it on a deposit in a highly reliable bank in a friendly country.