Experts have named a product that will rise in price by the New Year

Tangerines will cost a pretty penny

The cost of tangerines and oranges rose sharply in early December: by 12% and 10%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. The rise in price of citrus fruits in the cold months is a seasonal story for our country. Mandarin is the main New Year’s fruit. It can be said that it is a symbol of the main winter holiday. That is why the demand for these citrus fruits is increasing dramatically. And even despite the fact that the maximum supply of citrus falls on the rush of November-January, it is sometimes impossible to cope with such a surge in demand. It is not surprising that sellers take advantage of this: people will prefer to forego grapes and bananas in order to buy a kilo of orange vitamins with the saved money.

Analysts at Check Index concluded that at the beginning of December 2022, the average check for tangerines was 186 rubles, which is 12% more than last year. The rise in prices also affected oranges. The average check for them reached 172 rubles, which is 10% higher than last year.

Meanwhile, from December 1 to December 20, the Russians still spent on the purchase of a traditional attribute of the New Year’s table – tangerines, despite the rise in price: in total they laid out 590 million rubles, which is 7% more than last year.

Citrus fruits traditionally rise in price on the eve of the New Year, since these products are on the list of the most popular during the holidays. Similarly, champagne and cognac, vegetables, meat, sausages and cheeses are getting more expensive. Therefore, the increase in the cost of tangerines and oranges is not surprising.

In addition to the seasonal factor, the exchange rate has also been added this year, says TeleTrade analyst Alexei Fedorov.

“More than 90% of tangerines and oranges are imported to Russia from abroad, so domestic prices for these products are very dependent on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate. In December, the Russian currency fell by 15-17% against the US dollar, so that imported goods naturally became more expensive for Russians,” he notes.

As for logistics and suppliers, they have not changed much for tangerines and oranges. These goods are delivered to Russia from neighboring countries, as well as from Turkey, Morocco and other southern countries. There are fewer citrus fruits from Spain or Greece on the shelves of our stores, but the mass consumer is unlikely to notice this, says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets.

“Demand for tangerines and oranges on New Year’s Eve is very high – Russians are more likely to give up grapes or some exotic fruits, but citrus fruits for nothing,” the expert continues. “So the rise in prices will not affect demand, but citizens will still choose lower prices. Therefore, both now and throughout the year, turnover is growing in hard discounters, where the lowest level of food prices is offered.”

As usual, December is a high sales season for this type of product, emphasizes Anna Vovk, a member of the Council for Financial, Industrial and Investment Policy of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation. For this reason, sellers are not at all embarrassed and rewrite the price tags.

“The current rise in prices is not the limit. Prices will still grow by three percent and after the New Year holidays they will not become lower. Usually the cost is fixed and with it we enter the spring. In the summer, tangerines will become a little cheaper, and then everything will depend on the situation: the planning horizon in Russia is extremely close, ”says the expert.

Meanwhile, according to B&C Agency Managing Partner Ivan Samoilenko, it is most likely that in January 2023 the cost of oranges and tangerines will decrease slightly due to reduced consumption during the New Year holidays. And later, when this product is reduced in stores, its cost will increase, as the harvest season also ends.

“By the next New Year, prices will probably also go up – within the framework of inflation, which is projected to be in the range of 6-7%,” concludes the interlocutor of MK.