Expert Dandykin assessed the plans for the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: where to expect the main blow

A general counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may begin in the Kherson and Lugansk regions, just where Russian President Vladimir Putin recently visited.

– The main report at the headquarters of the Dnepr grouping of troops was made by the commander of the Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, recalls Vasily Dandykin. – In my opinion, this is one of the most experienced and talented commanders. I had a chance to meet him when he headed the Vienna district training center in the Siberian military district, in Peschanka, near Chita. He himself is a paratrooper, went from platoon commander to commander of the Airborne Forces, without missing a single post. He was instructed to study the situation on all fronts, his report was highly appreciated both in the Ministry of Defense and in the General Staff. And, of course, the fact that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief came to two new regions of Russia, and, as they say, set foot there, speaks volumes. It is necessary to reach the borders of these regions, and then we will see. There is simply no other way.

Vasily Dandykin, like many experts, believes that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is inevitable.

– First, they will throw less trained brigades and battalions to break through our first line of defense, just as the Germans during the Great Patriotic War drove civilians into mined fields. Our firing points will be stormed mainly by Marines and Terodefense. Their task is to find, to break through a gap in our defense. And then they can let in brigades already prepared and trained in NATO countries with modern equipment.

At the same time, according to the expert, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not succeed in an offensive similar to the Kharkiv one in September 2022.

– Now they have such a number with pickups and maneuver groups, as it was near Balakleya, in Izyum, will not work. A thousand-kilometer line of contact has been built and fortified. On the outskirts everywhere – minefields. Concrete “dragon teeth” stand in several rows, anti-tank, anti-vehicle ditches are equipped. As we have seen, their tanks do not move in a rhombus, but work as a means of supporting infantry from closed positions. They are constantly probing our defenses. Recently, for example, they flooded into our positions, but their tanks did not reach the line of contact, they were all burned. Tanks were immediately covered by artillery, ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) approached.

– After all, Kyiv can concentrate the remnants of its aviation on the direction of the main attack.

Three of their planes were shot down recently. As soon as they rise into the sky, they are already being led. Our Su-35s shoot them down not only at a distance of 30-40 kilometers, but even more. They are afraid of the bombs that ours are now dropping on them. And they are right to be afraid. We have not only guided glide bombs weighing 1,500 kilograms, but also three-ton bombs and more. Nervousness in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is felt in everything. The West supplied Kyiv with four batteries of the Patriot air defense system. They need more missiles. The cost of launching one of them is about 500-600 thousand dollars. On the strength they can give two sets. They also have trouble with missiles from our Soviet systems. For a long time to tightly cover the airspace in the area of ​​\u200b\u200bthe offensive they will not have enough missiles. Of course it won’t be easy. The Armed Forces of Ukraine can launch attack drones in a swarm. They have big drones, 12 propellers. But, as practice shows, our troops and air defense have learned how to effectively deal with them. Recently I was talking with a friend of mine, a fairly high-ranking military man. He said: “We are waiting and working.” If you gather people on all fronts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have approximately 300-400 thousand fighters. There are about 200 thousand on the line of contact. So what? If we have, for example, 250,000 people on the defensive. And for an offensive, a threefold superiority is needed, somewhere around 600-700 thousand. And now in Artemovsk, up to a battalion dies every day. Ours beat them both in the Donetsk direction and in the Kupyansky direction.

It is possible that in order to divert the attention of the Russian military, Ukrainian nationalists may launch an initial strike from the right bank of the Dnieper. And then start simultaneously advancing on the Crimea, both from Kherson and from Orekhov in the Zaporozhye region.

According to reconnaissance, along the Dnieper in the region of Berislav, Kherson and on the right bank of the Dnieper estuary – in the Ochakov region, a concentration of motorized infantry and rocket-artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was noticed. Apparently, as part of the assault groups, they will be thrown to force the Dnieper.

– APU may try to force the Dnieper in several directions at once. Firstly, this is the Energodar region, where the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant stands on the banks of the Kakhovka reservoir. We have the National Guard there. But, the fact is that Russian paratroopers are sitting there from the flanks. And our paratroopers have their own accounts with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they lost their comrades at the very beginning of the special operation.

The expert recalls that the Ukrainian military has repeatedly tried to land on the shore in the area of ​​the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

“And all this ended badly for them, their boats, barges and tugboats were sunk, hundreds of commandos drowned. In the Energodar region, the Dnieper is quite wide, the Kakhovka Reservoir is also located there. The water surface is clearly visible.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to force the Dnieper and in the area of ​​Nova Kakhovka. Moreover, the Ukrainian military had repeatedly conducted exercises there to force the river. The area with numerous islands and floodplains is well studied by them.

– Yes, there are many islands, and large enough, they can sit on some of them. But all this space is well visible. As well as the section of the river in the Kherson region, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine can also make an attempt to force the Dnieper. The West gave them special boats and other means of transportation. The same speedboats can be secretly delivered on a trailer. But our troops are not asleep, on the right bank of Kherson, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have quite large losses of both people and equipment.

Vasily Dandykin recalls that the width of the Dnieper in the Kherson region is not small, the length of the same Antonovsky bridge is 1366 meters.

“Someone said that the APU had delivered high-speed boats, they need 2-3 minutes to reach the opposite shore. But this path still needs to be passed. After all, everything is shot there, crossfire is being conducted, anti-aircraft, mortar and so on. We have fighters sitting there who already have combat experience, they shot the entire territory near the Dnieper. Because there have already been attempts by Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups to land on the left bank of the Dnieper. All of them were destroyed. Do not forget that the entire coastline there is mined. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine try to break through there, the massacre will be bloody.

Meanwhile, the acting head of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, at a meeting of the regional government, said that he had ordered to collect all civilian boats, small boats in the region in order to transfer them to our military. Boat owners, for whom they were means of production, were promised compensation.

“Our army has enough transportation means, and the most modern ones at that. And Russian pontoon-bridge crossings are generally one of the best. It’s hard for me to say why Saldo ordered the removal of the boats from the population. One can only assume that this is some kind of concern for civilians. So that none of them set off on a boat to pick up fish that would go deaf from shell explosions.

It is possible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may try to cross over to the Kinburn Spit. On one side of the peninsula is the Dnieper-Bug Estuary, on the other, the Black Sea. Since June 2022, this 40-kilometer-long strip of land has been under the control of the Russian side.

“Our volunteers, the Don Cossacks, are sitting on the Kinburn Spit. They are in the rear of the Ukrainian group. They repel the attacks of sabotage groups, hit on Ochakov, which is 9 kilometers away. They dug in there well. All saboteurs who tried to break into the spit were scattered and drowned.

– The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Budanov, promised “that in the spring the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be in the Crimea.”

“This will be, in my opinion, their last offensive. They are already afraid, they are nervous that our aviation will start working to the fullest. Now there are 4-6 sorties a day, but it is clear that there are much more planes. In addition, our “strategists”, long-range bombers, will rise into the air again. We managed to make a lot of different missiles, including “Daggers”. Let’s free Kherson again, don’t hesitate. And, of course, it is impossible to leave our underground in Nikolaev.