Everything is the same in new regions

On Thursday, within the framework of the round table of the Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI), held at the site of the Rossiya Segodnya MIA, a pre-election poll of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center was presented, conducted in the new regions of the Russian Federation. There, according to sociologists, United Russia dominates confidently: in all four regions, its result is above 65%. In the DPR and LPR, the LDPR is in second place, and the ratings of other parties fall short even of the five percent threshold, the overcoming of which guarantees seats in parliaments. In the Kherson region, only the Communist Party of the Russian Federation passes it, and in the Zaporozhye region, no one except the ruling party. However, the oppositionists themselves believe that in reality their figures in these regions are higher.

At the round table, the study was presented by VTsIOM representative Mikhail Mamonov. A telephone survey of 4,000 respondents (1,000 people in each territory) was conducted on August 1–2, with a stated statistical error of 3.2%. EISI acted as its customer.

Sociologists, in particular, asked respondents about whether they were going to take part in the autumn elections. The declared turnout in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) was 55% and 63% respectively, in the Zaporozhye region – 69%, in the Kherson region – 60%. “These are quite high figures. They are definitely not lower than in other regions of Russia,” commented Mr. Mamonov.

Also, the residents of the new territories were asked which party they would vote for if the elections of deputies of their parliaments were held next Sunday. At the round table, Mikhail Mamonov presented two indicators calculated on the basis of the answer to this question: the percentage of those who intend to take part in the vote, and of those who have decided on their choice. These figures form a corridor of the parties’ possible results, the sociologist explained.

According to these data, United Russia (ER) is leading by a wide margin in all four constituent entities of the Russian Federation. So, in the DPR, VCIOM gives it from 69% to 83%, in the LPR – from 73% to 80%, in Zaporozhye – from 80% to 89%, in the Kherson region – from 68% to 80%. In second place in both republics is the Liberal Democratic Party with results from 7% to 8% and from 6% to 10%, respectively. The third in the LPR was the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (from 4% to 5%), balancing on the verge of a five percent barrier, and all other parties in the DPR and LPR fall short of even up to 5%. In the Kherson region, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) have a chance to overcome the barrier: the result of the communists fluctuates in the corridor from 6% to 8%, and the Right Russians – from 3% to 5%. But in the Zaporozhye region, only United Russia has overcome it so far. One of the reasons for the dominance of United Russia in the new territories is the association of United Russia with the “president’s party,” Mikhail Mamonov explained: “And the president’s performance there is extremely high.”

At the round table, deputy secretaries of the party’s general council Alexander Sidyakin (who also heads the central executive committee of the United Russia) and Daria Lantratova gave their explanation for the high results of the United Russia. “We actually followed our military. They were advancing – Izyum, Balakleya – and we immediately opened humanitarian centers there … To be honest, I did not see any other parties there at that moment. Maybe they were too deeply disguised,” said Mr. Sidyakin. “Nobody needs to tell anything about our party in the new regions. We have been working for more than a year and a half… We are known and associated not so much with the process of political struggle, but with real help,” added Ms. Lantratova.

However, representatives of other parliamentary parties interviewed by Kommersant have their own versions about the results of the VTsIOM poll. So, the secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Sergei Obukhov, believes that the figures of sociologists are of an installation nature. “The internal political bloc has an intention to punish the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and cheat the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party, Leonid Slutsky. This task is solved by the political administrators with the help of data of supposedly surveys that are indicative for election commissions. It has nothing to do with real political sentiments,” the communist is sure. He also believes that in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the “administrative apparatus” is weaker than in the DPR and LPR, which is why the poll results differ there.

“Within the framework of the Donetsk consensus, all parties are doing the same thing in the new territories – they are helping as much as they can. And the population perceives this as a general help from the government, help from the mainland. And all this flows into the United Russia rating. There is no other way to explain it,” says Dmitry Gusev, secretary of the presidium of the SRHR Central Council for Political Affairs. In his opinion, the situation is also influenced by the fact that, within the framework of the “Donetsk consensus,” the chairman of the SRZP, Sergei Mironov, called for refusing to criticize United Russia. However, judging by the research conducted by the party itself, the indicators of the Social Revolutionaries in these regions are higher, Mr. Gusev adds. And he is confident that all Duma parties will enter the parliaments of the new regions.

In the Liberal Democratic Party, the results of the VTsIOM poll are not so sharply commented, although they also believe that it is too early to draw conclusions from it. “I am skeptical about all these stories about the first, second and third place. We don’t have a sports day. Since 2014, the position of the Liberal Democratic Party regarding new regions is reflected in the motto “We are for the Russians.” We have hundreds of thousands of supporters in the new regions. And most importantly, to mobilize them in the elections,” says State Duma deputy from the Liberal Democratic Party Stanislav Naumov. He also recalls that they, together with Leonid Slutsky, were co-authors of “important amendments to the draft law on the free economic zone of Donbass.” “These are tens of thousands of jobs in the metallurgy and coal industries, which should be filled by men who have returned from the front. The families of miners and metallurgists are aware of our position and support us,” adds Mr. Naumov.

New people also hope for a better outcome of the elections compared to the poll. “Relatively recently, we opened branches of the party in new territories, and now we are building up momentum. And of course, we are not sure that everything is as bad as in this poll, ”the party press service commented to Kommersant on the sociologists’ data.

Andrey Vinokurov, Ksenia Veretennikova