“Europe must not be naive in the face of Chinese diplomacy’s charm offensive”

Grandstand. The Chinese diplomatic authorities seem to have launched a charm offensive vis-à-vis the Europeans, with the visit of a special envoy, multiple requests to meet at the meeting of G20 foreign ministers in bali (Indonesia), November 15 and 16, the announcement of the purchase of three hundred Airbus aircraft and the approval of the relaunch of high-level economic and commercial dialogue with the European Union.

There have also reportedly been moves to get Beijing to hook German, French, Italian and Spanish leaders ahead of the G20 in Indonesia this fall. So many new signals after months of cold, which should not be overinterpreted.

Fundamental Divergences

These overtures, at little cost for Beijing, do not appear capable of calling into question a bilateral relationship confined to “damage control” [limitation des dégâts] for several years. The fundamental divergences that degraded the relationship remain unchanged. Beijing maintains its political and economic exchanges with Russia despite the invasion of Ukraine. The measures of economic coercion against the Lithuania following the opening of a representative office in Taiwan bearing this name, instead of that of the city of Taipei alone, are still in place. No change either on the human rights front of the Uighurs.

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The vigilance of Europeans must be all the more important as the temptations of appeasement are growing with the difficulties encountered elsewhere.

On the European side, economic and energy tensions are building up, making leaders more receptive to promises of compensation.

On the Chinese side, the Middle Kingdom, still mired in what looks more and more like a real estate crisis, has to deal with an internal economic situation that is not much better. On the diplomatic front, relations with the United States continue to deteriorate, while transatlantic relations seem to be in good shape. To this must be added the holding in November of the Five-Year Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to confirm in power Xi Jinping beyond the two mandates up to now.

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Everything suggests that this more conciliatory turn by Beijing will last a long time. China continues its momentum towards strenuous diplomacy, as illustrated by official reactions to Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit [la présidente de la Chambre des représentants, troisième personnage des Etats-Unis] at Taiwanor reference by NATO to the ” challenge “ what Xi Jinping’s China represents. Moreover, the only noteworthy reactions of Chinese diplomacy to the Russian invasion have so far been to propose a “Global Security Initiative” and a rapprochement of the major emerging economies, two initiatives perfectly aligned with Russian interests.

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