Europe looks for a safe place between the US and China

The French leader’s statements about his desire “not to get involved in other people’s conflicts” caused a sharply negative reaction from the American establishment and approval from Beijing. French President Emmanuel Macron, who returned from a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, stressed that the Europeans are not interested “in speeding up the solution of the issue with Taiwan.” “The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans should follow suit and adjust to the American rhythm and China’s overreaction,” the French president told Les Echos on April 9. Macron noted the need for Europe to gain “strategic autonomy”.

The reaction of the PRC was the statement by the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country, Wang Wenbin, on April 10 that Beijing hopes for other countries to “understand the essence of the Taiwan issue,” in particular, the principle of “one China.”

There was no public reaction to Macron’s words from the White House and the US State Department. But on April 10, Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio said that if the French leader represents the position of all Europeans, then the United States can stop supporting them in the Ukrainian conflict and focus on resolving the Taiwan issue.

On April 8, i.e., even before the publication of Macron’s interview, The Hill reported that the visit of Macron and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen to China on April 5-7 “revealed” the contradictions between the US and the EU over the position towards China. According to the sources of the publication, Macron considers it possible to persuade Beijing to play a role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, and the United States looks at Chinese politics as a desire to rebuild the world in accordance with the “authoritarian model”. The visit of Macron and von der Leyen to China took place in parallel with a private, allegedly “transit” on the way to Latin America, a meeting of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen with the Chairman of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy on April 6 on American soil. Beijing promised to respond to such an event and “punish the separatists”, despite the fact that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken emphasized the unofficial status of Tsai’s stay (Washington has not had official diplomatic relations with Taipei since 1979, but has provided him with military assistance).

Even before the end of the visit of top European leaders to China, the South China Morning Post wrote that at an informal meeting with Macron, Xi announced China’s readiness to support any French proposal leading to a political resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. But, as Politico wrote, citing a source, Macron failed to convince Xi to cut economic support for Russia. China itself, on the eve of the anniversary of the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, published its “peace plan” in 12 points, including both respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, and the immediate cessation of hostilities and the resumption of negotiations, as well as the lifting of sanctions. Moscow, in turn, does not see France as a potential mediator in the Ukrainian crisis, as it “actually takes the side of one of the participants in the conflict,” Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 10.

In Macron’s statements, one can really see “Gaullist” notes in terms of relations with Washington, in particular, the mention of “strategic autonomy” and the refusal to get involved in new conflicts under the American leadership: here one can recall both the Cold War and the issue of the invasion of Iraq in 2003. says Pavel Timofeev, Head of the Department of European Political Studies at IMEMO RAS. But in fact, there is no question of any “anti-Atlantic rebellion”, the expert is sure.

The director of the Foundation for the Study of the United States named after him agrees with him. Franklin Roosevelt Yuri Rogulev. He stressed that France’s de facto foreign policy is being built in line with Washington’s course, which is evident from the behavior of Paris in the Ukrainian crisis and participation in the supply of weapons to Kyiv. Macron only portrays the “Fronde”, Rogulev believes. At the same time, European economies depend more on China in terms of trade than on the United States, on which they depend politically, the Americanist emphasizes. The escalation of the US-Chinese confrontation around Taiwan hits the EU first of all – Macron understands this, it is no coincidence that he brought with him the “captains” of European business and only Airbus signed contracts for 300 billion euros, says Rogulev. Paris maneuvers and continues to calibrate its European course and place in the conflict between Beijing and Washington on the Taiwan issue in order to find the most secure position, Timofeev concludes.