Europe is waiting for a wave of refugees: the consequences of foreign intervention in Niger are named

The situation around the coup d’état survivor Niger continues to heat up. West African defense leaders have gathered in Ghana to discuss the crisis that has arisen after the leaders of the military coup in Niamey ignored the deadline for an ultimatum demanding the reinstatement of ousted President Mohammed Bazum. The longer it goes on, the more likely the prospect of foreign intervention looks. However, the cost of this option seems to be enough to make you think about the need for extreme measures.

The meeting of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) defense ministers in Ghana was the first since the West African regional group ordered the deployment of a “reserve force” last week to restore constitutional rule to Niger.

Judging by the latest statements, the bloc’s leaders seriously intend to send a multinational force to the “rebellious” country.

The use of force remains the last resort, but “if all else fails, the valiant forces of West Africa are ready to answer the call of duty,” ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Abdel-Fataw Moussa, bravely declared.

The contingent will likely consist of several thousand soldiers from Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Benin. Moreover, according to the statements of the ECOWAS leadership, all the countries of the alliance – with the exception of Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and the island Republic of Cape Verde – expressed their readiness to send their military to participate in the intervention.

It would seem that the issue has been resolved. However, this is exactly the case when it was smooth on paper, but forgot about the ravines.

First of all, conflict experts say it could take weeks, if not months, to prepare forces for intervention.

But even without taking this into account, the question arises: well, all right, the intervention will be arranged, and then what?

And then, warns political scientist from the University of Leeds (UK) Dr. Olayinka Ajala, military intervention by ECOWAS can provoke three bad outcomes.

And this despite the fact that the mere threat of using military force to stop the Niger coup d’état has already led to significant disagreements in the region, to increased tension in Niger itself, as well as between its neighbors.

There are more and more signs that any military intervention is likely to be met with stiff opposition. Growing support for the new government “emboldened the plotters to stay in power and expose the bluff of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)”, Dr. Ajala notes.

In response to the threat of force, more Nigerians have taken to the streets to voice their dissent, with one protest taking place close to the French military base in Niamey.

And in the ECOWAS countries, too, not everything is so simple. In Nigeria, which currently holds the rotating chairmanship of this regional association and acts as a “pioneer” for intervention, internal pressure is growing – in Kano, the largest city in northern Nigeria, protesters took to the streets against a possible invasion of Niger.

For their part, countries neighboring Niger but not members of ECOWAS, such as Chad and Algeria, opposed the use of force. Not to mention the more resolute Mali and Burkina Faso, who declared their solidarity with Niger and their readiness to help him by force of arms.

And yet the threat of a full-scale war remains. According to Dr. Ajala, its first consequence would be a surge of Islamic terrorism. The fact is that the countries that currently oppose him would divert their armies and resources from the fight against extremist jihadist groups like Boko Haram (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). Any escalation will further destabilize the impoverished Sahel region, which has been fighting desperately against an Islamist insurgency for years. Terrorist groups could take advantage of conflict-weakened borders if Niger flares up. Extremists can also benefit from a situation where armies that previously fought side by side with Islamist militants now turn against each other.

The second consequence of the invasion of Niger is the massive influx of refugees into the seven countries bordering this republic. Most of Niger’s population lives in the southern part of the country, close to the borders with Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries will suffer the most from the influx of refugees, further destabilizing already fragile states. At the same time, as a side effect, more African refugees will try to break through by hook or by crook to Europe, using the dubious services of criminal networks of human traffic. Niger has several bilateral and multilateral agreements with the EU and individual European countries aimed at curbing mass migration through Libya and the Mediterranean. Moreover, the city of Agadez, located in the central part of Niger, used to be famous as a major hub of illegal migration, but the situation has changed as a result of the concerted actions of Niger and its European partners. If war starts, all these efforts will go to waste.

The third consequence is that the conflict will increase tensions between Niger and France. The military who came to power accuse Paris of instability in the country and economic problems. Among a significant part of the Nigerian public, anger is already widespread against the former colonial metropolis and the activities of the French in the African country.

Here Dr. Ajala sees a special – from the point of view of the West – danger: they say that the Nigerians can turn to Russia, and even she can use the Wagner group, which is already present in Africa. At the same time, the expert admits that Moscow did not speak out in support of the leaders of the coup in Niger, but could use the full-scale military intervention of ECOWAS to acquire another ally on the continent.

So those who wish to restore the old regime in Niger by military means have something to think about. And weigh the pros and cons before making a potentially fatal decision.