Euro zone trade surplus reached all-time high in January

The euro area’s trade surplus reached €28.1 billion in January 2024, the highest on record (since 2002), according to recent Eurostat data. Back in December 2023, the figure was half as much – €14.3 billion. Exports in the first month of the year are estimated by the statistical service at €239 billion (the figure is 2.1% more than in December 2023), imports – at €210, 9 billion (4% less). A noticeable contribution to the “record” January surplus was made by a decrease in energy prices: year-on-year imports in this category decreased in monetary terms by 32.9%, to €41.3 billion. The decrease in energy prices explains, in particular, the maximum in six years and a trade surplus in Germany comparable to the entire euro area – €27.5 billion (the largest figure broken down by country). However, in the coming months, the dynamics may reverse, including due to the fact that the price of oil, according to analysts, will increasingly depend on the development of the conflict in the Middle East (see Kommersant on March 16).

In the EU, taking into account seasonal adjustments, the trade balance in January also showed a high surplus – €24.4 billion after €11 billion in December, Eurostat records. Exports from EU countries increased by 0.5% compared to last month, while imports decreased by 6.2%. Year on year, in January, trade with one of the key trading partners, China, dropped especially noticeably: thus, Chinese imports to the EU in the first month of the year decreased by 23.6%, to €36.6 billion (see chart). The latest statistics illustrate the continued deterioration in trade relations between China and Europe. The number of mutual restrictive measures, let us explain, is expanding due to mutual accusations of protectionism.

Most noticeably (by 10% y/y, to €5.8 billion) in January, the European Union increased supplies to Japan (primarily transport equipment and chemical products). The expansion of imports, apparently, can be recorded as early as next year – then, recall, duties on Japanese electronics, which currently amount to 14%, will be eliminated under the free trade agreement that entered into force in 2019. In January, EU countries continued to increase supplies to the United States – in annual terms, exports increased by 8.5%, to €40.2 billion – and the UK (by 2.5%, to €27.4 billion).

Kristina Borovikova