Enemies of Russia have driven themselves into a sanctions impasse

The very fact of holding a congress of the leading anti-Russian economies of the world in the city subjected to the American atomic bombing on August 6, 1945, raises questions (the Japanese media, however, explain the choice of the place by the fact that this city is the constituency of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida). Modern Japanese avoid the very mention of the direct fault of the United States in what happened. Nevertheless, in the final communique of the summit, published on May 20, one of the main places is given to nuclear security. In particular, the nuclear countries are called upon to maintain the inviolability of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. And it even emphasizes “commitment to achieving a world without nuclear weapons with guaranteed security for all.”

It sounds promising. However, in the context of the accelerating escalation of hostilities in the NVO zone, which may lead to direct intervention of NATO troops in the conflict, one cannot take the sincerity of the G7 leaders on faith. Rather, they are planning the unilateral disarmament of Russia.

At the same time, the main goal of the summit was precisely the confrontation with our country. The rest of the countries were threatened with secondary sanctions.

On the eve of the meeting in Hiroshima, US officials warned of increased bans on semiconductor shipments to China. After it turned out that Washington decided not to aggravate the situation. The final communiqué noted that the G7 countries are “ready to build constructive and stable relations with China.” Because “it is necessary to cooperate with China, given its role in the international community and the size of its economy.” They even confirmed the recognition of “one China” (together with Taiwan). But at the same time, the authors of the document warned about counteracting the “non-market policy of China” (meaning industrial espionage and, in general, deliveries of high technologies to the Celestial Empire) and the militarization of the South and East China Seas.

It seems that at the Japanese G7 summit they nevertheless decided not to break the global South through the knee, but to play on the long-standing contradictions of developing economies. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, even said that the South did not benefit from Beijing’s One Belt, One Road initiative, and as a result became dependent on China for credit and needs new, Western investments.

Of course, no one has canceled the problems of over-crediting of the whole world, especially the United States (except for Russia and China itself). But the One Belt, One Road strategy has so far been officially abandoned only in Italy, a country that clearly does not represent the global South. But Brazil, Argentina and even Thailand are consistently switching to payments with China and Russia in yuan.

But in any case, the Western countries, judging by the results of the Hiroshima summit, decided not to rush into the most radical anti-Russian sanctions. A month ago, the American media wrote that the G7 was preparing to ban all exports to Russia, issuing only single, one-time permits for the import of humanitarian goods. At the same time, it was planned to permanently ban the export of energy resources from Russia to Europe, shutting off pipelines that were already idle and still functioning.

However, multinational pharmaceutical companies were outraged. And Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called plans to shut down the Druzhba oil pipeline an attempt to curtail his country’s sovereignty.

As a result, they managed to announce new sanctions from individual countries. The United States has blacklisted 500 legal entities and individuals, the UK and Canada – about 80 each. 100 addresses are being prepared in the 11th EU sanctions package.

Finally, they decided to make Russia extreme in the global food crisis. Which is especially unacceptable. The idea of ​​condemning Russia on the issue of the high cost of food on the eve of the summit in Hiroshima was defended primarily by Fumio Kishida. At the same time, for some reason, he did not take into account the fact that last year the export of seafood from Russia to the Land of the Rising Sun grew immediately by 20% – to $ 1.1 billion – and took third place after the United States and Chile. We emphasize that Japan imports 40% of the seafood consumed.

It is just as strange to talk about a global food crisis right now. According to the FAO (UN food organization), the World Food Price Index from May 2022 to February 2023 fell from 158.7 points to 129.8. Accordingly, wheat prices dropped from $522.3 per ton to $386.3 by December 2022. Now – an average of no more than $ 234. At the same time, according to the Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation Dmitry Patrushev, every fifth of the export wheat in the world is Russian. In the current agricultural year (July 1, 2022-July 1, 2023), 50 million tons of grain have already been exported. Until July 1, another 5 million tons are expected. At the same time, wheat as a whole will be exported from Russia 45 million tons. This is a record of the XX-XXI centuries.

And this was achieved not because of, but in spite of the so-called Black Sea Grain Deal, concluded on July 22 last year by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN. Recall that the actual grain deal involved the opening of a sea corridor of three ports – Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny – under the control of the united quadripartite group. In addition, a Russia-UN memorandum was included in the general grain deal, which is designed for three years and involves the implementation of our five conditions: the lifting of EU and US restrictions on the charter of ships carrying food and fertilizers and their insurance, the lifting of bans on calls to their ports, the release of those arrested ships with grain and fertilizers, reconnection of Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT, resumption of operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline.

The first part of the grain deal was successfully completed. By May 1, Ukrainians transported 30 million tons of wheat, barley, corn (50% of the shipment), sunflower seeds, sunflower meal, soybeans and sunflower oil (5%) along the Black Sea corridor. This contributed to the decline in food prices, since the products were supplied at dumping prices. At the same time, all types of grain were additionally transported to the eastern EU countries by road, which caused the ruin of local farmers.

According to the FAO, the picture is as follows: 40% of Ukrainian grain was delivered to prosperous EU countries. Of the remaining 60%, no more than 3% reached the poorest countries. However, Turkey and China also won, where 35% of Ukrainian grain, oil and soybeans were supplied.

For Russia, the UN has not done anything to facilitate food exports. It is no coincidence that after the first extension of the deal in November last year, Moscow announced its possible termination. On March 18, it was extended only for two, and not for four months, as last year. Finally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on May 17 that it was extended until July 17. It was promised that Russian claims would be resolved at the same time. It is clear that Moscow is interested in Erdogan’s re-election in the second round of the presidential elections on May 28, as well as in meeting the grain needs of China and a number of African countries.

However, the G7 communiqué stated: “We reaffirm the critical importance of continuing and expanding the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, mediated by the UN and Turkey, in order to further promote grain exports from Ukraine and ensure stable supplies to those in need.” But at the same time, it is argued that Russia “deliberately undermines the agricultural sector of Ukraine.” Moreover, he steals Ukrainian grain and even interferes with his own exports.

As you know, no one needs Ukrainian grain dumped and dangerous from a sanitary point of view. On May 1, Turkey introduced a prohibitive 130% import duty on Ukrainian wheat, barley and corn. The EU, under pressure from a number of its eastern members, banned the import of Ukrainian grain until June 5 to Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania. China will be able to get the missing soybeans from the Russian Far East.

So after July 17, the Black Sea Grain Deal is likely to be in the bose. But in response, Russia is likely to receive a new batch of Western sanctions.