End of the World in Ukraine: Estimated Damage to the Energy System from a Russian Attack

Kyiv will have to forget about the export of electricity to Europe for a while

What specific damage did the energy system of Ukraine suffer as a result of massive strikes from Russia? The question hangs in the air: it will take some time to assess the degree of destruction, to understand how critical they are for the further stable operation of the entire economy. But one thing is already clear: Ukraine will not yet be able to export electricity to Europe.

Dozens of energy facilities across the country in Kyiv, Khmelnitsky, Sumy, Ivanovo-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Zaporozhye, Kirovograd, Lvov, Dnepropetrovsk and Vinnitsa regions were attacked. Ukrenergo reported widespread power outages. “Today’s shelling, which hit thermal generation and electrical substations, is forcing Ukraine to stop exporting electricity from October 11, 2022 to stabilize its own energy system,” Ukrenergo also said.

In what state has the Ukrainian power generation structure come up to today? Let’s start with the fact that its formation took place at the dawn of the Soviet era: electricity was supplied to the villages from 1924, ten years later the first hydroelectric power station was built on the Dnieper. Most of the operating power facilities were created by the efforts of specialists from the Ukrainian SSR.

At the peak of its capacity, the system was, perhaps, in 1991, then it began to steadily weaken: by 2019, electricity generation was almost halved, and after February 2022, by another half due to the closure of production. Today, the country’s energy balance is clearly shifted towards nuclear power plants, which last year provided 55% of all electricity, followed by thermal power plants and thermal power plants (combined heat and power plants) – about 30%, hydroelectric power plants – about 7%, renewable energy sources – 8%.

Most of the nuclear power plants are located in the west of Ukraine; they are the most stable element in its energy system. Thermal power plants and the Dnieper HPP cascade are concentrated in the center of the country. The eastern regions are mainly fed by thermal power plants, which are highly dependent on coal reserves. Hydropower plants are also vulnerable: for their stable operation, the level of water in reservoirs is critical. The destruction of one or more dams leads to a serious reduction in the amount of generated energy.

It is important to say that by October 2022, the energy sector of Ukraine decreased by more than 30% – after the largest of the four nuclear power plants, Zaporozhye, became part of Russia and was put into “sleep mode” due to the threat of accidents. Kyiv also lost seven of the 15 thermal power plants located in the LPR, DPR and Zaporozhye region.

And now – a new blow to the energy capacities of the Square. “So far, it is absolutely unclear how many substations and other power facilities have been put out of operation, and how quickly they can be restored,” says Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. – But it is obvious that Ukraine has turned from an exporter of electricity (Poland, Moldova, Romania and Slovakia bought it from Kyiv for hundreds of millions of dollars a month) into an importer. The second point: now it will be much more difficult to meet the demand from the population and enterprises, since the room for maneuver has disappeared. The main victims were coal and gas thermal power plants, which, unlike nuclear power plants, are able to increase or decrease production volumes, depending on the situation. Therefore, say, in Kyiv they introduced a schedule for the supply of electricity – so that the level of consumption corresponds to the level of production.

In addition to thermal power plants and thermal power plants, substations with a voltage level of 330 kV (kilovolt) became the target of the Russian attack, and large objects with a voltage level of 750 kV apparently decided not to be touched, Yushkov argues. According to him, it is extremely difficult to completely de-energize Ukraine; this requires systemic and long-term, rather than focal destruction. If one station falls out, another is able to replace it. At the same time, the first can be restored literally in a day, as this has happened more than once. Although the reliability and integrity of the power supply is understandably declining.

“The cessation of export deliveries will hit not so much Poland or Slovakia as Moldova, which is not so rich,” says Sergey Pikin, director of the Energy Development Fund. – Yes, and we are talking about several hundred megawatts, these are small volumes in fact. The situation will in no way affect either electricity prices in Europe or the income of the Ukrainian economy.”