EISI held a round table “Start of the 2024 political season: main expectations”

The presidential elections in March 2024 will be of a “referendum nature”, due to the high level of consolidation of the population around the current president and his team. This was the unanimous conclusion reached on Thursday by the participants of the round table of the Expert Institute for Social Research (EISR) “Start of the 2024 political season: basic expectations.” But the opposition will also be able to derive certain benefits from the campaign, because after the elections the level of political discussion may increase, political scientists have suggested.

The main feature of the 2024 presidential campaign was immediately outlined by the moderator of the round table, political scientist Firdus Aliyev: “The elections are being held in an environment that has never been seen in the modern political history of Russia.” The SVO and Western sanctions are reflected in public sentiment, but sociology shows “total, even excessive support” for presidential and government initiatives, he stated.

The course of the campaign is also influenced by the state of the consumer market, the search for an image of the future, the social aspect and attention to the elections from the world community, added political scientist Marat Bashirov. But the Russian authorities are working productively in all the mentioned areas and setting popular trends, he assured. Ensuring electoral processes is also at a high level, political scientist Vladimir Shapovalov supported his colleague: “Unlike many countries with a pronounced archaism, in Russia we are following the path of innovative practices, the introduction of all the most advanced means, methods and forms.”

Political scientist and member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation Alexander Asafov discussed competition, dividing candidates into several categories. The “leader” is President Vladimir Putin, the “political heavyweights” are Leonid Slutsky (LDPR) and Vladislav Davankov (“New People”), the “repeaters” are participants in past presidential campaigns Nikolai Kharitonov (Communist Party of the Russian Federation), Sergei Baburin (Russian All-People’s Union) ) and Andrei Bogdanov (Russian Party of Freedom and Justice), “marginalists” – Sergei Malinkovich (“Communists of Russia”) and Boris Nadezhdin (“Civil Initiative”), and, finally, “freaks” – bloggers Rada of Russians and Anatoly Batashev.

Experts differed in their assessments of the role of “exotic candidates.” “It makes no sense to say whether this is good or bad, but the truth is that during the consolidation of society such stories are less popular than in carefree and prosperous times,” said political scientist Anna Fedorova. “People don’t want games, they don’t want the election campaign to turn into a show,” confirmed political scientist and State Duma deputy Oleg Matveychev. “I didn’t like the word ‘freaks’, I liked the word ‘ballast’: they won’t participate, they lie around, they create legitimacy, but in reality they don’t mean anything,” snapped political scientist Pavel Danilin.

Otherwise, colleagues agreed with Mr. Asafov’s classification. “When was the last time we heard about stories related to Kharitonov?” – asked Mrs. Fedorova. “Zyuganov’s results were never below 17%, and both Kharitonov and Grudinin (2018 presidential candidate Pavel Grudinin.— “Kommersant”) showed some nonsense and never reached out to them: ballast, as I said,” Mr. Danilin agreed, reasoning that the struggle for “silver” will determine “the structure of the future parliamentary opposition minority.”

However, if the political agenda “freezes” against the backdrop of consolidation, it will be for a short time and insignificantly, experts said in response to a question from Kommersant, since the politicization of regional problems is still possible. “There will be a certain administration, and the regional elites will try to freeze it out… But it would be the greatest stupidity to think that under the guise of a presidential campaign it will be possible to do this even after the elections,” said Marat Bashirov. “I don’t think that freezing will happen, rather the opposite,” objected Vladimir Shapovalov. “We see that within the framework of the presidential campaign, regional issues are being updated.” Firdus Aliyev also agreed with this: “I communicate with a huge number of regional leaders: there is no such attitude in principle.” Although, if an issue “gets into the hearts of a significant number of voters,” the opposition “will have the opportunity to update this topic,” the political scientist admitted, “but if they engage in distortion – we know how sometimes local business groups use political tools, “This would clearly not be in the interests of the country and certainly would not be requested by voters.”

In general, the post-election period can become a productive period for the opposition, Pavel Danilin emphasized, “the opposition has the most opportunities just after the system has become tense.” “The EDG after the presidential campaign always takes place in a more debatable mode: we have observed this for several cycles in a row, and we can still give such a forecast. In the elections of autumn 2024, especially to legislative assemblies, this factor will, if not dominate, then obviously be present,” concluded Firdus Aliyev.

Grigory Leiba