Economists have discovered an “unexpected surprise” in the Russian economy
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In July, Russia’s GDP rose compared to the previous month. Most likely, the negative effect of sanctions on the Russian economy was overestimated. It is quite possible that, given the recovery of industry and the revival of demand, the fall in GDP may slow down to 3% or less.
This is reported RBC with reference to the report of the Ministry of Economic Development. In March of this year, experts gave extremely negative forecasts on the dynamics of the country’s economic development. The Ministry of Economy expected a 10% decline in GDP. Some analysts spoke of 23%.
Six months later, most of the forecasts had to be adjusted, as the impact of the sanctions turned out to be less damaging. Moreover, next year the decline in GDP may reach 0.6-0.8%. This was stated by the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Andrey Belousov.
As Sofya Donets, chief economist at Renaissance Capital for Russia and the CIS, explained, there is a trend towards a gradual improvement. Moreover, some sectors of the economy showed a slowdown in the decline. The leader was construction, which showed growth.
Sofia Donets also noted the revival of consumer demand in July. Andrey Belousov, at a meeting of the Presidium of the Government Commission on Improving the Stability of the Russian Economy, said that the peak of its decline was most likely passed.
“To a greater extent, this applies to food products, to a lesser extent, non-food products. But both there and there, gradually, demand begins to revive, ”he said.
Read also: “The government presented optimistic estimates of the Russian economy”
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