Economist Portansky appreciated the idea of ​​Russia’s withdrawal from the WTO: “Complete darkness”

In the fall, the State Duma may return to consideration of a bill on Russia’s withdrawal from the World Trade Organization. The document has been in the work of the lower house for about five years, recalled one of the authors, deputy Yuri Afonin. Meanwhile, the idea has a lot of staunch opponents in Russia itself, including in the government. Their arguments boil down to the fact that, having lost membership in the WTO, our country will suffer irreparable, difficult to predict and long-term losses.

Proponents of a break with the WTO point out that international trade with our country has long been conducted “not according to the rules”, and all economic contacts are limited by Western sanctions. Under these conditions, they believe, it makes no sense for Russia to adhere to any previously assumed obligations. Among the advantages of the “break” with the WTO is the termination of payment of membership fees and their preservation in the state budget, as well as the development of trade relations in the Customs and Eurasian Unions.

The supporters of maintaining membership in the WTO have a different point of view. They believe that in the event of leaving the organization, Russia will be left out of the well-established international system of global commerce, it will have to trade with the world, in fact, blindly. Including – with friendly states that did not impose sanctions. The idea of ​​a break with the WTO is considered counterproductive in the Russian Foreign Ministry: according to diplomats, this will be a “gift to enemies.” The Ministry of Economic Development also outlined its position: the department fears that the event will be negatively perceived by conscientious participants in world trade. We discussed the situation with Alexei Portansky, a professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, a former director of the information support bureau for Russia’s accession to the WTO.

– The theses of the authors of the initiative do not stand up to scrutiny. Voluntary refusal of WTO membership is not even stupidity, but rather an act that is not amenable to any comprehension, – says the interlocutor of MK. – Membership fees there are meager compared to contributions to the UN, UNESCO and other international organizations. Since Russia’s share in global trade is about 2%, we therefore contribute an amount equal to about 2% of the WTO budget. It’s only a few tens of millions of euros. As for the thesis about “development of trade relations in the Customs and Eurasian Unions”, this is generally complete darkness. Withdrawal from the WTO will result in huge problems in relations with partners in the EAEU. The fact is that all the obligations of the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union are synchronized with their obligations within the framework of the World Trade Organization, “embedded” in its legal framework. Other integration associations, for example, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP-11), are guided in their activities by the principles of the WTO.

– Accordingly, after leaving the WTO, Russia will not receive complete freedom of action in foreign trade, the right to do what it wants, as it seems to the supporters of the “gap”?

– Yes, our possibilities will sharply narrow, in particular, with regard to import tariffs. At present, the Russian tariff is taken as the basis for the CCT – the EAEU common customs tariff, which gives us an obvious advantage. But if our country leaves the WTO (and its obligations in the organization are nullified), then the single tariff of the EAEU will be built on the basis of the Kazakh tariff – lower, and therefore less beneficial for the Russian Federation. The level of protection of our market will decrease, as we will have to follow new obligations within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. It is also obvious that none of the members of the alliance will follow the example of Russia and leave the WTO, and then the risks of the collapse of the EAEU will increase. In the ruling circles of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, thoughts have been heard more than once that the EAEU does not give them any advantages.

There are other threats, first of all, for Moscow’s interaction with China and India. These two states are key players in the WTO, they determine the weather there on a par with the United States and the European Union. Our withdrawal from the organization will be perceived by them as the greatest stupidity, they will no longer take us seriously. Further, as a result of this step, Russia will lose its equal participation in the “Big Twenty”, the agenda of the summits of which are mainly issues of international trade. How will we discuss them without being a WTO member? In general, the term “international trade rules” hides nothing more than WTO rules. Others simply do not exist. Accordingly, no one wants to do business with Russia. According to Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Pyotr Tolstoy, “the organization has already neglected its obligations towards Russia.” Note: there are no such obligations! It was Russia that assumed certain obligations by joining the WTO in 2012.

– Proponents of the idea of ​​withdrawal also cite the following argument: Western sanctions against Moscow are destroying the system of WTO rules. How fair is he?

– History knows many cases when one or another country adopted sanctions unilaterally, without enlisting justification in the form of a UN Security Council resolution. Russia is no exception: twice it imposed restrictions on Turkey that did not comply with WTO rules. In 2015, a Russian military plane was shot down over Turkish territory, and in 2016, our ambassador Andrei Karlov was killed in Ankara. Yes, the sanctions do not correspond to the spirit and letter of the WTO, but the world community has coexisted and will coexist with this reality. This is by no means a reason to leave. We do not leave the ranks of the UN, which is far from ideal.

– If we assume the unbelievable, and this bill will be implemented, how will this ultimately affect the average Russian consumer?

– Now, in the conditions of a long-term decline in our economy, the very fact of withdrawing from the WTO will “sink” in all the negativity that we have today. And it is impossible to say exactly how the layman will suffer. It is only clear that in relation to Russia, even friendly states will cease to follow the rules of international trade, our penetration into their markets will be difficult. We will constantly be hindered in some way, since we will no longer be able to complain to the WTO Dispute Settlement Body (DSB).

– How technically complicated is the procedure for withdrawing from the WTO?

– For all time of existence of the organization (since 1995) there were no such precedents. In accordance with Article XV of the Marrakesh Agreement, a country must send a written notice of withdrawal to Geneva, addressed to the WTO Director General. The document will enter into force six months after the date of receipt. Such a scenario is extremely difficult to imagine.