Eat, pray, give birth: Patriarch Kirill has found the root of demographic evil

Heavy artillery has entered the unfolding battle to increase the country’s birth rate. Speaking at the opening of the XI Church-wide Congress on Social Ministry, Patriarch Kirill fully supported the initiative of Mordovia, which legally prohibited inducing women to undergo abortion: “I hope this initiative will be supported in other regions and at the federal level.”

The law “On the prohibition of inducement to artificial termination of pregnancy in the territory of the Republic of Mordovia” was adopted by the regional parliament on August 2 of this year. Ordinary citizens not burdened with authority for violating the law face a fine of 5 to 10 thousand rubles, officials – a fine of 25 to 50 thousand rubles, legal entities – from 100 to 200 thousand.

The Republic became the first Russian region to adopt such an act. But not the last: a similar regional law – almost identical to the Mordovian one – appeared in early November in the Tver region. And, apparently, very soon we will see a continuation. This, in fact, is evidenced by the speech of Patriarch Kirill, who is always keenly aware of socio-political trends.

“The population can increase as if by magic if we solve this problem,” the head of the church is confident. “If we learn to dissuade women from having abortions, the statistics will immediately go up.” Well, it’s hard to argue: such a skill will at least not spoil the demographics. But it seems that neither the patriarch nor the regional authorities, who threaten punishment for knocking pregnant women off their feet, fully understand the full scale of the problem.

Abortion is only a very small, tiny part of it. Abortions are performed either in cases of unwanted pregnancy, or when the pregnancy was first desired, and then changed their mind.

But incomparably more often births do not happen not because of abortions, but because there was no pregnancy at all – because it was not wanted and was not allowed. That is, logically, it is also necessary to legally prohibit inducement to use contraceptives and, sorry, interruption of sexual intercourse.

In principle, the occurrence of such restrictions cannot be completely excluded. But there will be absolutely no sense from this either. Firstly, due to the simple fact that you cannot assign a spy with a candle to every cell of society, official or potential. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on who you choose), this area is beyond state control. At least for now.

Secondly, it is not enemies-pests who are trying to achieve depopulation of the country who are persuading Russian citizens to limit the birth rate. No, the enemies may even dream of such a scenario, but, thank God, this is beyond their capabilities. The enemies’ arms, as they say, are short.

There are two determining factors here. The first is what pundits call the demographic transition: a decline in both mortality and fertility as human civilization develops, with the result that population reproduction is reduced to simple replacement of generations. It’s also unlikely that anything can be done about this: no method has been invented against this crowbar anywhere in the world. And it’s not a fact that it’s necessary to invent it at all: the uncontrolled, uncontrollable growth of the planet’s population is also, to put it mildly, not a gift.

But something can perhaps be done about another important factor that sometimes causes the birth curve to deviate significantly from the schedule characteristic of the demographic transition. Both in one direction and in the other. We are talking about what can be called confidence in the future. From its presence or absence.

Let’s look at the country’s socio-economic indicators: taking into account accumulated inflation, citizens’ incomes today are less than 10 years ago, in 2013, which continues to be the most prosperous year in the post-Soviet history of Russia. Just like 1913 – in the history of the pre-Soviet and the good half of the Soviet. No, it is clear that the reduction is due to known force majeure circumstances. Which sooner or later must change. The question is when.

The severity of the problem is also evidenced by the recommendation given by one priest to his distraught flock that caused quite a stir: the good priest advised women to give birth to as many children as possible, because “if she has more than one child,” then “she will not be so painful and afraid.” part with him.” The advice, in principle, is logical, but some part of the audience could be encouraged to choose the exact opposite option of behavior – not to give birth at all. Or at least put it off until better, calmer times.

In general, there is still some work to be done here. There is someone to work with. Unlike the intimate sphere, this is entirely within the area of ​​responsibility of the authorities.