Drought in Asia threatens Russians with rising prices for a popular commodity

Is there a shortage of rice?

The bony hand of hunger suddenly hovered over entire nations and continents. More than three billion people, mostly Asians, could be left without their basic food, rice. Prices for this product in the world jumped to a maximum over the past 15 years. What awaits the Russians because of the shortage of rice that has arisen in the world, and is there any connection with distant Asia?

By August 9, Thai white rice, the benchmark for exporters, rose in price on the planet’s food exchanges to $648 per ton, which is 50% more than in August last year. In the world on this occasion, rice fever begins. This product is a favorite treat for 3 billion of the world’s 7.8 billion people. Basically, fans of this type of cereal are residents of Asian countries. But Russians also love such an affordable and tasty culture. In our epic there is even a folk tale about a rice ball. Well, will the rise in world prices affect our consumer basket? The question is not idle. If something begins to rise in price on world markets, this is immediately reflected in domestic prices in Russia. Officials’ favorite argument: it’s like that all over the world, but why are we better?

The situation in the world is really serious. India, the world’s largest exporter, has vetoed 80% of its exports to meet the needs of the domestic market and avoid rising prices. The United Arab Emirates followed suit. Thailand, the world’s second largest exporter after India, has yet to impose any bans on foreign imports. However, Bangkok urged its farmers to significantly reduce rice crops this season due to drought. Just have time to pump water to this crop: at least 2,500 liters of water are required for 1 kilogram of rice! And it is now lacking in the countries of Southeast Asia due to the onset of El Niño (temperature fluctuations in the upper layers of the Pacific Ocean). In general, nothing good can be expected in terms of rice prices either in the world or in Russia.

According to Rosstat, in the period from August 1 to 7, in just a week, its prices in the country rose by 0.5% – and global problems with drought have nothing to do with this rise in price. Due to a man-made accident at the Fedorovsky hydroelectric complex in the Krasnodar Territory in May last year, a dam was destroyed that fed rice paddies, that is, fields. The dam has not yet been restored. The agricultural department until the end of this year banned the export of products from the country. Everything must remain in Russia, everything in the name and everything for the good of the Russian people.

The Ministry of Agriculture called on rice growers to harvest at least 1.2 million tons of cereals this year. It is expected that the result will be slightly smaller – about 1.05 million. In principle, based on domestic needs, this volume is more than enough. The National Rice Union (NRC) urges Russians not to succumb to the hype and not to store rice “for a rainy day”, as ordinary people usually do.

“There is enough raw material in the country,” assures NRS Executive Director Mikhail Radchenko. – And in 3-4 weeks we will start harvesting a new crop. Then our wholesale prices will generally decrease by about 5%.

“Nevertheless, according to Rosstat, rice is becoming more expensive. Who is raising prices?

— Our rice processing plants ship products for trade at 69-70 rubles per kilogram, only 4% more expensive than in 2022. And the fact that you can find it in stores for 150-200 rubles has nothing to do with manufacturers, he replies.

Maybe our traditional short-grain rice through the efforts of domestic farmers will not give an explosive growth in price. Water, land, seeds – everything is ours, home-grown, why should they rise in price? Yes, and in stores next to kilogram packages of 150-180 rubles, you can find packages of 60-65 rubles, even cheaper than the selling price from the manufacturers themselves.

Experts say with all responsibility: not for long. Short-grain rice is not the most revered among the people. Buyers prefer long-grain, which is not grown in our country due to climatic conditions. But we use it for cooking pilaf and other culinary delicacies. It is supplied to us from the countries of Southeast Asia in the amount of 200-220 thousand tons per year, and, of course, we buy it for foreign currency. It’s hard to say how prices will rise for this product. After all, now we will buy it not at 65-70 rubles per dollar, as a year ago, but at 90-95 rubles. Imported rice will definitely rise in price by 30–40 percent, so it may still make sense to make small reserves for the winter …