Donald Trump is running for president again

Former US President Donald Trump, who led the country from 2017 to 2021, announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

As early as November 10, The Washington Post, citing sources, reported that Trump’s advisers urged him to delay the race announcement because it could affect the course of the midterm congressional elections. Later, on November 15, the British The Guardian wrote about the same. The interlocutors of the publication claimed that the ex-president was urged to postpone his statement until the final count of votes in the congressional elections was completed, fearing a negative impact on the outcome of the second round of voting in some states. At the same time, the main representatives of the ex-president’s team told him not to change plans in order “not to show weakness.”

The “red wave” predicted by many experts did not happen in the November 8 elections, including due to the loss of a number of candidates who were personally supported by Trump. The former head of the country himself called the past midterm elections “somewhat disappointing”, while he still wrote in TruthSocial on November 9 that, from his point of view, “it was a very big victory.” Meanwhile, Trump has a very strong competitor in his own party, whom he will need to beat in the primaries to meet the strongest Democrat in the final.

The real triumph in the US Republican Party after the November elections was the 44-year-old Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis. He confidently won re-election, defeating Democrat Charlie Crist (59% to 40%). Moreover, the Republican also won the most “Democratic” district in the state of Miami-Dade, where the Republicans have not won since 2002. Among other things, the governor took 57% of the votes of Hispanics, 52% of women, 52% of independents and 55% of Puerto Ricans – the traditional electorate of Democrats . DeSantis has received a lot of positive press coverage, including from pro-Republican Fox News, but has yet to say anything about his presidential ambitions.

After the midterm elections, Trump began to lose to DeSantis in Republican polls – at least according to YouGov data from November 13 (42% for the latter versus 35% for the ex-president). The fact that the situation has changed dramatically as a result of the last vote was indicated on November 14 by Politico, citing a pre-election poll by Morning Consult, according to which Trump was confidently ahead of DeSantis (48% vs. 26%). Trump is now losing in his home state of Florida, according to the conservative organization Club for Growth, writes Politico.

At the same time, the ex-president has already warned DeSantis several times against running for president, expressing the opinion that by doing so he “could harm himself.” On November 10, Trump told the story that he was the one who inspired him in 2017, when he came to him as a “political corpse.” Now, as Trump claims, the NYPost, WSJ and Fox News support the “average governor.”

Trump’s desire to run for president again is not supported by former Vice President Mike Pence, who broke with him amid the events of January 6, 2021, reports Bloomberg. On November 15, he said that the American people would be free to decide, but that he would “be a better president than Trump,” showing that he was thinking about such a scenario.

Trump’s decision to nominate is very difficult to explain with rational arguments, says Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the North American Studies Sector at IMEMO RAS. In her opinion, it is worth considering, first of all, Trump’s personal and psychological factors and his desire to win against a new serious competitor. For the Republican Party, this situation is a serious challenge, since it is now split due to Trump’s actions, and now it has someone to pass on to his electorate – we are talking about DeSantis.

At the same time, Trump’s rating is stable and always keeps at the bar of about 30%. The outcome of the duel in the primaries, if both politicians decide to run at once, is now very difficult to predict, but, according to Zhuravleva, the majority in the party is ready to support DeSantis. The party establishment would not want to face a president like Trump again, the expert said. DeSantis, on the other hand, can gather a more moderate Republican electorate and, because of this, can be more successful than Trump.

In addition, Desantins looks more promising than Trump in terms of a possible fight against the Democratic candidate Biden, whose old age remains the main anti-factor for re-election. Mike Pence, according to Zhuravleva, will not run in the end, and the rest of the Republican candidates will be familiar figures from past elections like Ted Cruz.

At the same time, it is difficult to call Trump a promising politician at the age of 76, says Yuri Rogulev, director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States. In addition, according to a YouGov poll conducted right before the midterm congressional elections, 56% of voters would not like to see the current head of state Joe Biden in the presidential chair again, 53% – Trump, and do not want both presidency – 25%. So, regardless of party affiliation, neither one nor the other arouses enthusiasm among the electorate, emphasizes Rogulev.

But Trump has staunch followers, the expert recalls, although this is a relative minority even in the Republican Party. Therefore, Trump’s behavior poses a difficult task for the leadership of the party because of the unwillingness to lose a very active part of the electorate, Rogulev says. At the same time, the party establishment regrets that at one time it allowed Trump to speak in the elections on its list, since in reality they did not really count on his victory. Now the eccentric Trump has already recorded a number of victories for himself, such as the political success of his potential rival DeSantis, in achievements, but the recent elections obviously did not add confidence to the ex-president, the expert believes.

DeSantis, on the other hand, is rallying the electorate, including African-Americans and Hispanics, as the elections in Florida, the swing state that went “Red,” have shown, undoubtedly benefiting the Republicans, Rogulev says. Desantis is less charismatic, less recognizable and eccentric, but in general, political strategists can improve his image, the expert concludes.

Trump has already fulfilled his historic mission, and his decision to run for president, in fact, does not change anything from a global point of view, says Alexei Naumov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). He notes that Trump has already left his indelible mark on the Republican Party and, in fact, determined the course of its further development. According to the expert, before Trump, the Republican Party was positioned as a force advocating traditional conservative values, which was represented by blue-collar workers, the military-industrial complex and traditional American hawkish elites. Trump, on the other hand, introduced a huge element of anti-elite and value protest into the party, turning it into a party of struggle against the “Washington swamp”.

At the same time, from the point of view of Naumov, Desantis is trying to combine the two main directions in the party – the Trumpist and the traditional, which existed before the ex-president. “Desantis is a more civilized version that your mom will love. He is capable of attracting new voters to his side, this is Trumpism with a human face,” says the RIAC expert.