Doctors warn of an inevitable increase in COVID-19 infections in Russia in autumn

“In two weeks we will get a surge in the incidence”

While many have begun to forget about covid, it certainly does not forget about us. From different countries, a sharp increase in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 is reported. The number of hospitalizations is also growing, schools are being closed for quarantine. Some countries have announced the return of mandatory masks in hospitals and reduced visitor access to hospitalized patients.

This wave (no one remembers which one) has yet reached Russia, but virologists are sure that we cannot dodge it. And it will start as soon as possible.

The World Health Organization reports a sharp increase in the number of cases from the end of July to the end of August 2023: in the world, the incidence jumped immediately by 63%. Overall, 1.5 million new cases of COVID-19 have been reported globally over the past month. The situation is worst in South Korea, where more than 1.2 million people were infected in a month.

However, disturbing news is also coming from other countries. Thus, in the United States, the increase in hospitalizations with COVID-19 continues; the increase over the last week is 21.6%. After the new school year began in schools, the increase in the number of calls to the emergency department of adolescents aged 12-15 with covid started (last week, according to the US Centers for Sanitary Control, the increase in calls is the highest in the last year). For example, in Kentucky, school districts began to close a few weeks after the start of the new school year. And school attendance in some districts has fallen below the threshold required for full-time education.

In Japan, the new wave (9th) of COVID-19 is characterized by a slow but steady growth. Local doctors are alarmed by the high coverage of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of the so-called immune people (those who received immunity after vaccination or previous infections). But, unfortunately, the updated vaccines do not keep up with the generation of new lines of the virus. The latest variants of SARS-CoV-2 confer very short immunity that does not offer protection against infection with newer strains.

In Scotland, Edinburgh is literally on fire – today one in nine of its inhabitants is infected with COVID-19. Over the week, the incidence increased from 17.7 thousand to more than 35 thousand cases. Doctors warn that every tenth “shine” longkovid.

The UK has recorded an increase in weekly COVID-19 hospitalizations for 7 weeks in a row. And now the worst indicators for the last 3 months are recorded. “The data on the long-term persistence of the virus in the body of adults and children, the harm of the virus’s impact on the immune system and other systems and organs, the reduction in healthy life under the influence of COVID-19 and the increase in mortality (not only in the older age group) are alarming,” says the laboratory doctor diagnostics Alexander Solovyov.

Meanwhile, according to Rospotrebnadzor, the situation in Russia is still quite calm. In a month, the incidence even decreased by 32%, to 12,000 new cases. A well-known virologist, academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Lvov does not see any prerequisites for a devastating wave of covid in Russia. “It’s just that now the SARS season is being activated, all of them are starting to grow little by little. And covid is no exception,” he told MK.

Professor, Head of the Department of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology, Russian National Research Medical University. N.I. Pirogov Vladimir Nikiforov believes that the covid, of course, has weakened: “Now it is not what it was two or three years ago, when we had the Wuhan strain or the Delta strain. But we must understand that although the virus has weakened, it has not gone away. He liked us, and he stayed with us forever, I think. And although he lost his deadly power, he still remained an extremely unpleasant disease. No one has canceled the long-term and serious health complications that it gives. That is, the trouble that came to us three years ago is not so pronounced today, but it remains with us.

– Will the incidence increase in our country against the backdrop of the situation in the world?

– We will definitely grow, we will not get anywhere from this. The children are returning from the holidays, the holiday season is over, everyone has moved to their habitats, there will be crowding again, and in two weeks we will get a surge in the incidence.

– In the world, this surge has been going on for several weeks. Why?

– In other countries, the vacation period is not as clearly defined as ours. Our time frame for departure and return is more pronounced. And, of course, the country does not look like a country. So in the near future we will have growth, but hospitals are unlikely to overflow and mortality will not increase. Although there will be trouble. Now vaccines are being modified, they need to be corrected: the strains are changing.

– Will the quarantines come back to us?

– No. Quarantine makes sense when a deadly disease has arrived, and now covid is no longer so aggressive. There is no point in quarantines.

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 29102 dated August 29, 2023

Newspaper headline:
What is autumn – a surge of covid