Do not let the “kraken” in – Newspaper Kommersant No. 4 (7449) dated 01/12/2023

Rospotrebnadzor does not rule out that a new version of the omicron-strain “kraken” will appear in Russia. It is already actively distributed in the US, UK and other European countries. Experts note that this is the most transmissible, contagious variant of COVID-19 among all existing ones – several hundred sub-lengths of the “omicron” alone have already been recorded. However, Russian scientists and epidemiologists believe that the Kraken will not be able to turn the tide of the post-pandemic. Most will probably be infected with it, but many will not even notice that they have been ill with a new variant.

A subvariant of the XBB.1.5 omicron strain of the coronavirus, unofficially named “kraken” in honor of the mythical sea monster, may also appear in Russia, warned Rospotrebnadzor. “Currently, no cases of XBB.1.5 have been reported in our country. But, like other strains, the “kraken” may also appear in the Russian Federation, since the borders are open, planes fly, people are actively moving and exchanging viruses, ”the health service website says.

The XBB.1.5 variant was reportedly first seen in October in the US and attracted the attention of researchers for its ability to transmit very quickly from person to person.

“We haven’t seen any variant spread at this rate for months now,” warned Pavitra Roychaudhuri, director of COVID-19 sequencing at the University of Washington School of Medicine Virology Laboratory. XBB.1.5 is a product of recombination: two descendants of BA.2, or “stealth omicron,” swapped parts of their genetic code, resulting in 14 new mutations in the spike protein and a new subline of XBB, which caused a wave of morbidity in Singapore in the fall, but so and not widely used in the world.

WHO expert Maria van Kerkhove confirmed that this option is the most transmissible among the existing ones. “The reason for this is the mutations that are found in this recombinant sub-variant of the omicron, which allow this virus to attach to the cell and easily replicate,” the WHO representative said.

She stressed that the organization was concerned about the spread of XBB.1.5, especially in some countries in Europe and North America. So, according to the authorities of the United States, in a few weeks the number of sequenced cases of “kraken” increased in the country from 4% to 40%. The share of this variant in the total structure of strains in the USA is estimated to be about 30%. From the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control websiteECDC) states that as of January 9, 4,770 sequences related to XBB.1.5 have been uploaded to GISAID, the largest database of coronavirus strains. Most of them came from the US (4111) and the UK (202). In addition, this variant has been found in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.

However, ECDC emphasizes that there is currently insufficient information to talk about changes in the severity of the infection caused by the variant “kraken”.

Note that the “kraken” was preceded by “centaur”“typhon”, “Cerberus”and in total, several hundred subvariants can be found in international genomic databases “omicron”.

“The evolution of the coronavirus is unstoppable, so more and more new variants will appear,” says Sergey Kharitonov, a molecular biologist and researcher at Moscow State University. “It’s another matter that we are now registering these variants, giving them names, because this problem is still relevant.” According to Mr. Kharitonov, the history of COVID-19 nevertheless leads to the fact that new symptoms, threats, and an increase in the severity of the disease should not be expected. “Even this terrible “kraken” is terrible only because it gets away from vaccines a little better and spreads faster. This is a reason to think for those who have chronic diseases, problems with the immune system, because the risks of getting infected with something against which immunity does not work have increased. A vaccinated and healthy person does not need to worry,” says Sergey Kharitonov.

Since there are already many strains, he continues, their different species can collide in the same organism and thus exchange “pieces of genetic material” – and the “kraken” appeared. “This recombination process is faster, and this can potentially lead to the emergence of new properties. On the other hand, this process does not bring anything fundamentally new, since it is an exchange of pieces already known to us, ”says Mr. Kharitonov.

Epidemiologist, director of the Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies at the European University at St. Petersburg Anton Barchuk believes that the “kraken” will not restart the pandemic. “Most likely, it does not cause a severe course of the disease – and this is the most dangerous thing that can happen at this stage of the post-pandemic,” says Mr. Barchuk. According to him, “we will not see anything supernatural”, except for a large number of cases, but many of them, the epidemiologist emphasizes, will not even know that they have been ill with a new variant.

“Over the past three years, there have been statements both about “victory over the pandemic” and about the fact that the coronavirus is with us forever, so it is very difficult to predict a fracture,” says Yulia Fokina, a general practitioner, a cardiologist at the Doctor Nearby medical company.

She adds that, given the contagiousness of the strain, the development of the “Chinese scenario” cannot be ruled out – the explosive nature of the incidence in China after tough lockdown measures. However, Ms. Fokina notes, in clinical practice for doctors of other specialties, it is not the strain that matters to a greater extent, but the severity of the course of an already developed disease, its contagiousness.

Natalia Kostarnova