Demographers scared about “depopulation”: by the end of the century, half of the population will remain in Russia

Experts call for nuclear boost to birth rate

In his interview in the Kremlin, the president, mentioning the demographic problem, called it a “global trend.” But at the same time he mentioned “several developed countries” where the birth rate is not bad. “MK” decided to find out from experts what kind of countries and what demographic indicator is now considered tolerable.

“Today the birth rate is falling all over the world, but there are developed countries in which the situation is not so depressing,” Putin said specifically. And he noted that the decline in the birth rate is “a complex problem related to the economy and the life priorities of women.” And “the third tool for solving demographic problems is immigration.” In Russia it is small – only 3.7% of the number of working citizens.

“Depopulation is going on, desolation,” says Yuri Krupnov, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development. – The non-Black Earth region shows this very clearly: there is no work, the population is dying out. 3 trillion rubles were spent on the national project “Demography”, but this in no way correlates with the result. Money is a social measure of support, not a demographic measure.

– Putin mentioned several developed countries with good demographics – maybe we can see what kind of measures they are using there?

– The situation is different in different countries now. In South Korea, for example, the total coefficient per woman of childbearing age is 0.8 – there is not even one child. And in Germany it’s 1.6-1.7. But everywhere there has been no simple reproduction for decades. And even in the most backward countries of South Africa, where there are still only a few children per woman, their number is still falling. As demographers say, a “demographic winter” is coming across the planet.

– What awaits us?

– In the next 5-7 years all over the world, the total fertility rate will fall below simple replacement. For the first time in history there is such a problem – humanity refuses to give birth. This is a disaster, a colossal problem. Giving apartments or doubling salaries is not a solution, but a basis, conditions for having children’s families in general. We in Russia must somehow solve this problem, otherwise, based on the total fertility rate, by the end of the century we will have half the population left. We need a serious scientific approach to study how we can restore the institution of family and make a 3-4-child family the norm in Russia. The same global task as the atomic program in the last century, for example. This is our greatest task today.

“France has one of the highest birth rates in Europe, Australia has high life expectancy, the same goes for Norway and Sweden,” adds independent expert demographer Alexey Raksha. – Israel still, of course. Good demographics for a developed country is now a fertility rate of 1.7, by 2024 standards.

As for foreign experts, they list measures to improve demographics as increasing the availability of quality medical care and healthcare for women and children, and campaigning on the importance of a healthy lifestyle, including the fight against smoking, alcoholism and drug addiction. Social benefits and government programs, development of the education system and increasing the literacy level of the population, maintaining economic growth.