Daniil Medvedev will play Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open semi-finals

At the US Open, which is entering the home stretch in New York, the second pair of semi-finalists in the men’s singles has been determined. They were Daniil Medvedev, the winner of this 2021 tournament, who defeated Andrey Rublev in three sets, and the current champion Carlos Alcaraz, who left no chance for Alexander Zverev from Germany. Thus, the Russian will meet the Spaniard for the second Grand Slam tournament in a row – just like two months ago at Wimbledon, where Alcaraz confidently won.

The strange thing is that the difference in ranking and class between Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz is much smaller than between the other two semi-finalists – Novak Djokovic and Ben Shelton. And in some ways it’s easier to predict what will happen on the court when they face each other. The fact is that the Serbian veteran has never met the young American, who completed 76 aces in five matches – more than anyone, while the Russian and the Spaniard only this year were playing twice – in the final of the Indian Wells tournament and the semi-final of Wimbledon. And both times Alcaraz won very easily, not giving up more than three games in each of the five games.

Medvedev is having a very good Major. He dropped only two sets on his way to the semifinals, his best performance since winning the 2021 US Open.

Moreover, it should be borne in mind that the last days of the American championship took place in 35-degree heat, which was superimposed by high air humidity. Such conditions are considered extreme even for New York, where they are generally accustomed to them, and Medvedev has never been distinguished by crazy endurance. Nevertheless, in the quarterfinals with Andrey Rublev, rich in breaks and ending with a score of 6:4, 6:3, 6:4, he retained all the main draws and beat his compatriot primarily due to stability, despite the fact that in each of For three games the opponent led the score.

True, this level will clearly not be enough to defeat Alcaraz. With the exception of his forehand, the Spaniard is now frankly stronger than Rublev in all respects of tennis skill: he is better prepared physically and psychologically more stable. At the “masters” in Toronto and cincinnatiwhere Alcaraz was at times out of character and seemed to be going into a slump, logical enough after beating Djokovic in an emotionally draining five-set final Wimbledon. However, last year the Spaniard looked even worse in August, which did not prevent him, starting from the fourth round of the US Open, from winning three victories in five games, and then confidently dealing with the Norwegian Casper Ruud in the final.

In the quarterfinals against Alexander Zverev, the current champion was the favorite, but few expected that he would win so easily – 6:3, 6:2, 6:4. Nevertheless, of the four quarterfinals, this one turned out to be the fastest. In two and a half hours, Alcaraz converted all four break points at his disposal, never gave up his serve and, going to the net 35 times – more often than Medvedev and Djokovic did in total in their quarterfinals – he won there 80% points. Just perfect statistics showing that last year’s champion is at his peak.

Medvedev is, of course, a master of the highest level. However, this is not the kind of all-rounder that has several tactical options in stock, ready to be implemented at a moment’s notice.

Sometimes a Russian, wittingly or unwittingly, manages to bring down someone else’s mood using fairly standard techniques – simply demonstrating his own emotions, sorting things out with the judges and fans, or resorting to time-outs allowed by the rules. Medvedev is even capable of slightly modifying his tennis, although by and large it is always based on the ability to serve strongly and skillfully move from defense to attack. Therefore, the plan for the semifinals, which the Russian must adhere to in order to at least impose a stubborn fight on Alcaraz, is obvious.

First of all, Medvedev is obliged to put the ball into play as often as possible from the first ball. A powerful serve is his serious trump card. In terms of the number of aces performed at the US Open (51), the Russian ranks seventh, while Alcaraz is not even in the top twenty. At the same time, one of Medvedev’s main shortcomings is a continuation of his advantages. He made the most double faults in a week and a half – 35, while Alcaraz has the best rate for points won on his second serve (63%). And Medvedev, who almost always plays with swings, is unlikely to be able to serve like an automatic machine throughout a five-set match. Moreover, knowing that on the opposite side of the court there is Alcaraz with his furious technique.

Another strong point of Medvedev, as is known, is the ability to sharply counterattack. But to use it, in this case it is necessary not to openly fight back (in such situations, Alcaraz, with his cannon strikes in combination with cunning shortened ones, almost always brings the matter to its logical conclusion), but to keep the opponent on the back line, not allowing him to clearly take the initiative. In fact, Medvedev, whose body is already pretty exhausted by the New York heat, is obliged to play an ideal match for himself, which is still difficult to imagine. Although, it is quite possible that the Russian still has enough strength, and his French coach Gilles Servard already has some other cunning plan with the help of which his ward will still be able to create a sensation.

Evgeny Fedyakov