Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov hit one quarter of the grid

This coming Monday, the last Grand Slam of the season, the US Open, kicks off in New York. One of the features of the men’s tournament that can affect its outcome is the fact that the three strongest Russian players – Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov – ended up in the same quarter of the grid. This means that if the situation develops in accordance with the situation in the world classification, then in the 1/8 finals Rublev will play with Khachanov, and the winner of their meeting will advance to Medvedev in the quarterfinals.

Recently, almost any Grand Slam tournament can influence the leadership in the men’s world rankings. And the upcoming US Open will not be an exception, although by and large in this context, as such, it is devoid of intrigue. Even last Sunday after victories Novak Djokovic over Carlos Alcaraz in the epic final of the tournament in Cincinnati, it became known that the Serb, in order to overtake the Spaniard and climb to first place in the rankings, would only need to win in New York. It only remained to find out the first rival of Djokovic, who turned out to be the Frenchman Alexander Muller, the 85th number in the rating of the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP). It is impossible to believe that this unremarkable player, who at the age of 26 only went through the starting rounds at the majors twice, will suddenly jump above his head and defeat Djokovic himself at the start of the US Open, it is impossible. So with the one who will be the first racket of the world in two weeks or so, almost everything is clear.

But so far there are no answers to many other questions that, as usual, accompany such a significant tournament.

For example, how great are the chances of seeing another battle in the New York final Alcaraz and Djokovic, who before Cincinnati also met in the Roland Garros semi-final, where the Serb took over, and in the Wimbledon final, which was left for the Spaniard. This largely depends on the draw, the results of which should be evaluated unambiguously. Djokovic was definitely lucky with potential seeded rivals, while Alcaraz was rather the opposite.

Serbian tennis player in the third round shines compatriot Laszlo Jere, who, of course, has minimal chances to go further, then – Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, who is failing this season, in the quarterfinals – Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas (account of personal meetings with Djokovic – 2:11) or an American Taylor Fritz (0:7), in the semifinals – Norwegian Kasper Ruud (0:5), American Francis Tiafoe (0:2) or Dane Holger Rune (2:1), who did not finish his opening match in Cincinnati due to injury . Of course, such layouts are always conditional, but it is clear that in general, for Djokovic, the draw is extremely successful. Alcaraz, in turn, in the quarterfinals runs the risk of running into an extremely unpleasant opponent for himself – the Italian Yannick Sinner, who lost three out of six previous matches. And in general, the quality of the Spaniard’s game in the last two tournaments – in Toronto and Cincinnati – left much to be desired. There was more than enough desire, but stability was not enough.

Of course, practice shows that Alcaraz is much more dangerous in five-set matches, but so far his margin of safety is not clear.

If the Spaniard makes it to the semi-finals, then there – at least based on the current position in the world rankings – he will most likely have to deal with one of the Russians, since Daniil Medvedev, Andrei Rublev and Karen Khachanov got into one and the same second quarter of the grid, which from the point of view of probability theory should be considered unlikely. Theoretically, in the 1/8 finals, Rublev will play with Khachanov, and the winner of their meeting will advance to Medvedev in the quarterfinals.

About Khachanova, last year’s semi-finalist of the US Open, who got in the first round on the American Michael Mmo, who received a wild card, however, a reservation is immediately required. Due to a stress fracture in the lower back after Wimbledon, the Russian practically did not play, having spent only two matches in doubles in Cincinnati. With Rublev nothing is clear either. After defeats in the opening rounds at two “masters” in a row, he will meet with the same Finn Emil Ruusuvuori, whom he lost to in Cincinnati.

Medvedev’s recent results (a quarter-final in Toronto and a third round in Cincinnati), however, are not much better, if, of course, we remember that we are talking about the third racket of the world.

But he has at least a suitable first opponent – the Hungarian Attila Balasz. Moreover, if Medvedev has practically secured a place for himself in the list of participants in the final ATP Finals tournament, then Khachanov, who for quite a long time was in the top ten in terms of points scored this year, and now has fallen back to 13th place there, will be extremely difficult. Yes, and Rublev somewhat complicated his life with recent failures. Getting 600-800 points in about two months is a real challenge for him. But to avoid further hassle, at least a third of this amount would be good to earn in New York.

Evgeny Fedyakov