COVID-19 returned from vacation – Newspaper Kommersant No. 7 (7452) of 01/17/2023

In Russia, the increase in the incidence of coronavirus has begun again: over the past week, the number of new infections increased by 40.5%, and the number of hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants increased by 32.1%. Rospotrebnadzor explained such indicators to Kommersant by the return of Russians from the New Year holidays and called this period “a kind of mini-September” from an epidemiological point of view. The supervisory service added that “in a week or two” the incidence should stabilize and then decline, “unless some new factors intervene.”

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in Russia increased by 4289 per day, the number of deaths increased by 40, the federal operational headquarters to fight infection. This is less than the day before, when 4,789 cases of infection and 43 deaths were detected. The number of hospitalizations also decreased: 363 citizens were admitted to hospitals during the day against 489 the day before (a decrease of 25.8%). And those who recovered, on the contrary, became more: 3466 on Monday against 3208 on Sunday.

At the same time, the headquarters noted that in general, the incidence of COVID-19 in the country increased by 40.5% over the past week, and the number of hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants increased by 32.1%.

The increase in the number of hospitalizations occurred in 64 regions. The incidence has increased in 75 regions, follows from the data of the headquarters.

“Indeed, in the first week after the New Year holidays, there was a slight increase in the incidence of covid,” the press service of Rospotrebnadzor told Kommersant. “But in fact, this is a common situation: after long holidays, people go to work and study en masse, begin to actively exchange viruses . As a result, there was a wave of diseases. The same thing happens when everyone returns from vacation in September. So we now have a kind of mini-September from an epidemiological point of view.” The supervisory service added that “in a week or two” the incidence should stabilize and then decline, “unless some new factors intervene.”

Among such factors could potentially be a new version of the “omicron” XBB.1.5, received the name “kraken”. It was reportedly first spotted in the US in October and attracted the attention of researchers for its ability to spread super-rapidly from person to person. WHO expert Maria van Kerkhove previously stated that the organization was concerned about the rapid spread of XBB.1.5, especially in some countries in Europe and North America. So, according to the authorities of the United States, in a few weeks the number of sequenced cases of “kraken” increased in the country from 4% to 40%. The share of this variant in the total structure of strains in the USA is estimated to be about 30%.

In Russia, the first and, according to official data from Rospotrebnadzor, so far the only case of infection with the “kraken” was found in a resident of the Penza region.

However, the sick person, as noted in Rospotrebnadzor, did not leave the region in the last two months.

However, the department indicated that at present, another line of “omicron” – BA.5, remains dominant in the country, although in general this strain is represented by “a fairly wide range of varieties.” Other experts are also not inclined to explain the emerging increase in the incidence of coronavirus by the spread of the “kraken”. Medical director of the SberHealth online service, general practitioner Vladislav Mohamed Ali notes that, according to the data available today, XBB.1.5 is highly contagious compared to other Omicron strains, but is not as aggressive and poses less and less threat and serious consequences. “A virus is a living organism that changes and adapts to environmental conditions. And while our body is learning to deal with it, the virus is doing the same to bypass the defense,” explains Mr. Mohamed Ali. In his opinion, it is premature to talk about the mass distribution of this particular variant, since reliable epidemiological data are not enough for this.

Andrey Pozdnyakov, an infectious disease specialist and chief physician of the INVITRO-Siberia clinical diagnostic laboratory, believes that the kraken may become the dominant strain, as it is more contagious than previous versions, but also notes that it is still impossible to speak with confidence about this. “For example, it has not yet become dominant in America,” argues Mr. Pozdnyakov. And even there, the expert continues, where the rapid growth of the “kraken” was found, there was no increase in hospitalizations and deaths. Thus, according to the degree of “maliciousness” (pathogenicity), this variant does not differ from “omicron”. “We are likely to experience a surge in the incidence, but it is unlikely that it will develop into a new wave of a pandemic, because a large number of cases of covid will be attributed to a common ARVI, since they are as similar as possible in manifestations,” Andrey Pozdnyakov believes.

Earlier, an epidemiologist, director of the Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies at the European University at St. Petersburg, Anton Barchuk, told Kommersant that, probably, “we will not see anything supernatural during the spread of the kraken, except for a large number of sick people, but many of them will not even know that have been ill with a new variant.

Natalya Kostarnova