Coronavirus strives for immortality
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The incidence of coronavirus in Russia is growing for the fifth week in a row. Over the past seven days, the growth rate has increased by 30.5%. At the same time, mortality from COVID-19 has been steadily decreasing all this time. So, over the past week, 272 people died in the country due to coronavirus, which was the minimum since mid-October 2020. However, the experts with whom Kommersant spoke note that the elderly and patients with chronic diseases are still at risk of a severe course, and there is no need to wait for a reduction in the number of hospitalizations.
The incidence rate of coronavirus infection over the past week per 100,000 people amounted to 54 cases and increased by 30.5% compared to the previous seven-day period, the operational headquarters for combating infection reported. It is specified that growth was noted in 74 subjects of the Russian Federation. At the same time, in 21 regions the rates are higher than the national average. A week earlier, the authorities reported an increase in the incidence rate by 32.7%, it was 41.4 cases per 100 thousand people. Thus, the epidemiological situation in Russia is deteriorating for the fifth week in a row.
The average daily figures more than doubled over the past month: on Monday, the operational headquarters reported 11,006 new cases, and in mid-January, about 5,000 cases were detected. On February 13, 6,484 people recovered (4.7% less than the day before).
The number of hospitalizations of covid patients over the past week also increased compared to the previous one – by 23.9%, amounting to 5.7 cases per 100,000 people. The operational headquarters notes that in 32 regions, patients with coronavirus require inpatient treatment more often than the average for Russia.
The leaders in the number of new episodes of COVID-19 are St. Petersburg and Moscow. On Monday, 68 hospitalizations, 1,326 cases and five deaths were recorded in St. Petersburg. In the capital, 124 hospitalizations, 2403 cases and 11 deaths. They are followed by the Sverdlovsk region. On February 13, 399 cases of coronavirus were detected in the region. At the same time, a month ago, the regional operational headquarters recorded less than 200 cases. But the number of hospitalizations, on the contrary, decreased: if on January 17, 46 residents of the region were sent to hospitals, then on February 13 – 5. And in the Omsk region, the incidence increased sevenfold over the past month: 141 cases of COVID-19 were detected last Monday, then as on January 16, only 21 episodes of coronavirus infection were registered.
The increase in the incidence is not reflected in the mortality rates, which have been steadily declining for the fourth week in a row. Over the past seven days, 272 people have died in the country due to coronavirus, which was the lowest since mid-October 2020.
Elizaveta Temnik, an infectious disease specialist at the Doctis telemedicine service, notes that the epidemiological situation for SARS, including influenza and a new coronavirus infection, is “really unstable.” According to her, the incidence rate exceeded the weekly epidemiological threshold by an average of 7%, but “there is no reason to panic.” The expert points out that now almost all medical institutions are promptly conducting special diagnostics of cases of severe course of laboratory-confirmed influenza, including swine flu, and all of them remain sensitive to the main etiotropic drugs – oseltamivir and zanamivir. “If we talk about COVID-19, according to the information received in the influenza and ARVI surveillance system, according to the results of PCR analysis of clinical materials from 10,517 patients, the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 901 (8.6%) cases – this not much in comparison with the figures that were at the height of the epidemic,” says Mrs. Temnik. “In general, the incidence traditionally increases in February. This has always been the case with the flu, and it will be the same with new respiratory viruses. There are all the prerequisites for this: the body is “tired” of winter and weakens, susceptibility to infections increases due to a decrease in protective forces, in dry air due to heating, the infection is more easily transmitted by aerosol, temperature changes affect.
The chief physician of one of the clinics of the Nearmedic network, therapist Anna Rybakova draws attention to the fact that the severe course of coronavirus is still noted in the elderly due to aggravating factors – chronic pathologies of the cardiovascular and respiratory systems.
“Given the structure of the incidence in the Russian Federation and the age composition of the population, it can be assumed that this will not reduce the increase in the incidence of coronavirus and the number of hospitalizations,” Ms. Rybakova believes.
This problem is pointed out in the Ministry of Health of the Samara region. In the region, according to the department, about 50 new patients with COVID-19 are admitted to hospitals daily. These are mainly representatives of the older generation and patients with chronic diseases. “Infection with COVID-19 leads to a change in the blood coagulation system, to the aggravation of existing diseases, to the development of acute life-threatening conditions – heart attacks and strokes,” said the Minister of Health of the region Armen Benyan. “We see that the percentage of complications and even adverse outcomes. About 6% of all hospitalized are in intensive care under the supervision of doctors.
In general, Anna Rybakova summarizes, it is not yet possible to say that the coronavirus has become a common seasonal SARS, since there is no reliable epidemiological confirmation that the incidence decreases in the summer. “Based on WHO data, I think this (the transformation of the coronavirus into a seasonal infection. – “Kommersant”) can be assumed a year after the end of the pandemic,” concludes Ms. Rybakova.
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