Coronavirus pandemic returns: COVID outbreaks in China worry scientists

Experts have warned that China’s ongoing COVID outbreak could lead to an unfortunate outcome that could put the world back on track in the fight against the virus.

Cases have doubled in two weeks across China, where the coronavirus pandemic began almost three years ago. A record 40,000 people are currently testing positive for COVID each day, with millions subject to restrictions as Beijing sticks to its “zero covid” strategy.

Large protests broke out in a number of Chinese cities against the new batch of rules, which forced some residents to stay at home for more than three months.

Leading experts have called China an “ideal” breeding ground for dangerous variants of the coronavirus, due to the fact that it has been immune from previous waves and has a low rate of vaccine use. The high infection rate is a “cauldron of virus evolution” that could lead to a more lethal and immune-evading variant, they say.

However, other leading scientists have warned that a spike in coronavirus infections, which is not yet showing signs of peaking, will not necessarily lead to a worrying new strain.

China has imposed strict pandemic rules for almost three years since the coronavirus was first detected in Wuhan. This means that more than 1.4 billion people in the country are suffering from severe restrictions, while other countries that have adopted other strategies are resorting to living with a virus that now poses a much smaller threat than when the pandemic began.

Local authorities subjected Chinese people to strict lockdowns, mass testing campaigns and months-long quarantines even in the event of small outbreaks, causing food and medicine shortages. The daily number of infections in China previously peaked at about 25,000 in April. Since then, the country has recorded between 200 and 2,000 cases a day. But a month ago, that figure began to rise, reaching 39,791 this weekend — nine out of ten cases were asymptomatic, according to the National Health Commission.

Confirmed cases jumped 66% to 4,307 in Beijing, while most infections were reported in the southwestern city of Chongqing (8,861) and Guangzhou (7,721) in the south.

Dr Simon Clark, a microbiologist at the University of Reading, told MailOnline: “Every Covid infection gives the virus an opportunity to change its characteristics. The idea that this only leads to a reduction in lethality is simply wrong; having effective immunity in the population seemed to have had a much more significant protective effect, but compared to the vaccines used here, it seems that the Chinese vaccine is less effective, which may be contributing to their problem. Large-scale mass infections, even if they do not cause serious disease, represent a cauldron of virus evolution that allows them to change and potentially become more deadly or less susceptible to existing immunity.”

While low transmission rates have resulted in China having a low death rate from the virus compared to the rest of the world, this means people have limited built-up natural immunity. These factors make it easier for the virus to spread, and health officials have warned that the virus is likely to mutate when it is most prevalent.

UK government scientists have previously warned that there is a “real possibility” that a future variant, the next one expected to be called Pi, could kill up to one in three people, making it as deadly as the Middle East respiratory syndrome MERS. with a mortality rate of 35%.

Professor Lawrence Yang, a virologist at the University of Warwick, told MailOnline: “China is facing a terrible dilemma. China’s zero Covid policy has resulted in far fewer deaths than most other countries, including the UK and US. But it also contributed to vaccine hesitancy – why get vaccinated if you’ve eliminated the virus? Of particular concern are the elderly in China, where third booster coverage is relatively low. Overall, a combination of vaccine hesitancy, the use of less effective vaccines (compared to mRNA-supplemented vaccines, of course), and relatively low waves of previous infection (due to the Covid Zero policy) means that the population does not have a protective immunity wall. . This not only poses a risk of widespread infection leading to high levels of severe disease and death, but also provides an ideal environment for breeding new varieties.”

Professor François Balloux, an infectious disease expert at University College London, predicted to MailOnline that China will face a “major wave of COVID in the near future.”

He said: “Given the low vaccination rate of the elderly and the rather fragile state of China’s healthcare capacity, a significant surge in COVID could lead to significant mortality and morbidity in China.”

However, the scientist added: “I am less worried about such a surge leading to the emergence of new variants of the virus. The main variants we saw (alpha, delta, and omicron) likely arose from long-term infections in immunocompromised patients. Thus, a significant surge in China is not expected to lead to a sharp increase in the risk of new options, at least in the short term. I am also not sure that, given the severity of the humanitarian and epidemiological situation in China, the emergence of future options is really something we should be obsessing about right now.”

Scientists have previously stated that it is just as realistic that COVID will mutate to become less lethal over time, as happened with Omicron and its variants.

Current COVID vaccines are expected to work against future variants, unless a superpowered mutation occurs that makes the vaccines far less effective at blocking serious diseases, which many experts say is highly unlikely.

Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, comments to MailOnline: “The problem China is facing is that because it has maintained its zero COVID policy even after everyone has been vaccinated, much of the benefits of vaccination will now be lost.” “.

The “difficult situation” in the country means that easing Covid restrictions will lead to a “spike” of infections and severe illness, although over time the rate of serious illness will drop to levels seen in Western countries, the epidemiologist claims.

“But if they continue with their zero Covid strategy, more people will lose their protection. [от вакцинации] before they are exposed to the virus, and therefore in the long term the number of severe diseases and deaths will be even greater,” said Paul Hunter.

Professor Hunter added: “If I were in charge in China, I would urgently start a new vaccination campaign to give everyone more protection before easing restrictions, especially for the elderly — pretty much what most Western countries have done. The problem is vaccine fatigue. Will the Chinese be able to vaccinate as many people who will benefit from the vaccine before the infection spreads widely?”

China is facing the biggest anti-government demonstrations since the Tiananmen Square events in 1989, with protests now flaring up in at least seven cities over strict COVID-related regulations.

A number of districts have introduced new restrictions to combat outbreaks, including banning people from leaving their apartments. This is despite President Xi Jinping easing some national measures, such as quarantines and close contact tracing, two weeks ago amid rising cases.