consumer sentiment and expectations of the population of the Russian Federation continued to improve

According to Rosstat (a survey of more than 5 thousand people in all regions of the Russian Federation from May 1 to May 10), consumer sentiment and expectations of the population of the Russian Federation continued to improve, and the consumer confidence index (CSI) in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 3 percentage points (p. to minus 15% – this is the maximum since the pre-Covid first quarter of 2020 (minus 11%). Improvements were observed in all age groups.

As part of the FSI, the index of expected short-term changes in the economic situation in the country increased by 4 percentage points (minus 9%) due to representatives of the middle and older age groups, while in the younger age groups the estimates stabilized. The index of changes in the economy over the past year for the second quarter increased by 7 p.p. (minus 22%) – the highest since COVID-19. Against this background, the index of changes in personal financial situation for the second quarter increased by 1 percentage point (minus 12%) due to a decrease in negative and an increase in neutral assessments among the middle-aged population and stabilization of positive assessments at the level of 11%. The Ease of Buying Index increased by 2 pp (minus 25%), as did the Ease of Savings Index to minus 31% (see chart).

However, despite high consumer optimism, according to Sberindex, household spending on goods and services in the second quarter began to grow noticeably slower than in the first quarter of 2023. From June 12 to June 18, they increased by 7.5% in nominal terms in annual terms against growth by 7.2% and 7.7% in the previous two weeks. According to the analysts of the MMI Telegram channel, based on the weekly dynamics of Sberindex, the reduction in real consumer demand in May compared to April 2023 could be 1.5-2%, seasonally adjusted. Similar estimates are still being obtained for June: the rate of downward movement is 1.5-2% month-on-month, seasonally adjusted, year-on-year dynamics is positive – 4-4.5%, the authors of the calculations note.

It should be noted that, according to the June monitoring of enterprises published by the Central Bank yesterday, short-term expectations of companies also worsened for the second month in a row – retail trade showed a decrease in optimism, and consumer goods manufacturers in the manufacturing segment, which can also indicate a fading consumer demand or overestimated expectations enterprises.

Artem Chugunov