ACRA found a link between import substitution and energy consumption

A study by the rating agency ACRA, dedicated to the analysis of industrial energy consumption in the regions, showed that it can serve as a more rapid indicator of the processes of adaptation of the economy to new conditions caused by the Russian military operation in Ukraine, related sanctions and retaliatory foreign trade restrictions. At the same time, these studies demonstrate the presence of adaptability in both extractive and industrial regions, but also the presence of a group of developed subjects of the Russian Federation, for which dependence on exports and imports remains steadily strong.

ACRA studied the energy consumption of the regions minus the supply of electricity to the population – de facto this is the demand of the industry, which can act as an indicator of the utilization of production capacities. At the same time, the statistics of last resort suppliers are more up-to-date than detailed data on regional industrial production. They arrive with a lag of two months to a year, the agency notes. Energy consumption, on the other hand, makes it possible to more quickly observe and analyze the process of restructuring regional economies and the current level of influence of foreign trade restrictions on them, both import (including indirect) and export restrictions.

Industrial electricity consumption in the Russian Federation has dipped since June 2022 by 0.5–1 billion kWh per month compared to the peaceful 2021 data (a decline of 2–4%) and has not recovered in 2023. At the same time, its regional dynamics is extremely heterogeneous: a strong decline in 2022, associated with a decrease in the load of energy-intensive industries, was observed in regions with a high share of processing, including metallurgy, chemical industry and mechanical engineering, “which indicates a high external dependence of this group of regions” , noted in ACRA. The average depth of decline in such regions in 2022 was about 7%, in the group – Mordovia, Kaluga, Vologda, Murmansk regions, Perm Territory, etc. fell on the Novgorod region. Moscow, Tula, Omsk regions, Bashkiria, Udmurtia, Komi, Tatarstan are included in the group with “moderate” external dependence – the share of processing in their GRP ranges from 10–30% (42% in Tula), and energy consumption in 2022 did not decrease or grow (the record is in the Irkutsk region, 12% y/y). Separately, ACRA considers a number of regions – these are the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Kemerovo, Kursk, Amur, Magadan regions, the Trans-Baikal Territory, Yakutia, Tuva, etc., where the share of production in GRP is large (50–90%). A decline in industrial energy consumption in 2022 was also recorded in them (1–10%) — it was influenced by agreements within the framework of OPEC + and external restrictions on the export of Russian raw materials.

At the same time, the data for the first quarter of 2023 show that a number of subjects of the Russian Federation are adapting to the situation. Thus, Moscow, Smolensk, Tula, Kostroma regions and Tatarstan, according to the data at the beginning of April, showed an increase in productive electricity supply after a minimal decline in 2022, which ACRA considers the effect of rapid adaptation to changes. At the same time, often higher growth in energy consumption in the first quarter in Yakutia, Tuva, Vladimir, Chelyabinsk, Kursk and Kemerovo regions followed a deeper dip in 2022, which indicates a “moderate” rate of their adaptation.

For a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, however, the decline in industrial consumption in 2022 continued into the first quarter of 2023. This “does not mean a negative outlook”, analysts say, but it indicates a greater dependence of the industry of these regions on foreign trade relations: these are the Kaluga, Kaliningrad, Vologda, Rostov, Murmansk and Moscow regions, Karelia and Primorsky Krai, which are characterized, among other things, by import and export machine-building, pulp and paper, etc. enterprises.

Oleg Sapozhkov