Concession with law on foreign agents will not make it easier for Georgia to become an EU candidate

The parliamentary majority, led by the ruling Georgian Dream, on the morning of March 9 “unconditionally” withdrew the bill on foreign agents from the Georgian parliament, which provoked mass protests in the country. This is stated in a joint statement of the Georgian Dream, the parliamentary majority and the Power of the People public movement. At the same time, in principle, the ruling party does not intend to abandon the initiative to introduce regulation of foreign agents. The opposition also does not intend to curtail the protests yet.

At about 10.30 Moscow time, Tsotne Koberidze, a member of the Tbilisi Sakrebulo (legislative assembly) from the Girchi-Meti Tavisupleba (“Girchi More Freedom”) party, said that another mass action would take place outside the Georgian Parliament today. Citizens will gather at 19:00. The opposition demands the release of citizens detained during rallies (there are 133 people in total, according to the country’s Ministry of Internal Affairs on the morning of March 9), as well as clear explanations from the authorities about how they intend to withdraw the bills. Opposition lawyer Davit Jandiereri said that there is no term for “withdrawal” of the document, and thus Georgian Dream is trying to “buy time” for campaigning for its idea.

The EU Delegation to Georgia on its Twitter on the afternoon of March 9 already welcomed the withdrawal of the bill. We call on all political leaders in Georgia to resume pro-European reforms in an inclusive and constructive manner and in line with Georgia’s 12 priorities for candidate status. On March 3, 2022, Georgia applied for EU membership, but in June of the same year Brussels did not give Tbilisi the status of a candidate, justifying this decision by the need to “achieve compliance on a number of conditions.” In November 2022, EU Ambassador to Georgia Pavel Gerchinsky said that Brussels would make a decision on the candidate status for the country before the end of 2023, and in December 2022 the Georgian authorities announced that they had fulfilled the “12 points” of the conditions for granting this status.

Regardless of the procedure for withdrawing the draft law on foreign agents and the further scale of concessions to the Georgian Dream, until the openly pro-Western United National Movement of Mikheil Saakashvili, now imprisoned, returns to power, and until Tbilisi has close economic ties with Russia and the “bridge” between it and Turkey, it is hardly possible to talk about clear prospects for the status of the country’s candidate for EU membership, Artur Ataev, head of the Caucasian studies sector at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, believes.

The bills regulating the activities of foreign agents were introduced in two versions by representatives of the parliamentary majority headed by the Georgian Dream bloc. The first of them, which was adopted at an emergency meeting of parliament on March 7 (initially, the consideration was scheduled for March 9), reminiscent of the law in force in Russia, assumed that non-profit legal entities and the media would receive the status of agents of foreign influence if more than 20% of their income would come from abroad. The second bill is conditionally called “American” because of its proximity to the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA, adopted in the United States in 1938). According to it, the status of a foreign agent is provided not only for the media and non-governmental organizations, but also for other legal entities and individuals, and the penalties for violations are tougher, up to criminal liability.

The adoption of the bill in the first reading provoked mass protests in Tbilisi and clashes with the police. Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili criticized the document and promised to veto it on March 7. US and EU officials condemned the bill, as well as the police crackdown on protesters, noting that the document runs counter to Georgia’s “Euro-Atlantic” aspirations. In addition, the US State Department threatened to impose sanctions on those responsible for the actions of the security forces in the center of Tbilisi. Amid the protests, Irakli Kobakhidze, chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party, said the day before, March 8, that the parliament had sent the bill to the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe for analysis.

For the ruling majority and directly for the Georgian Dream, the mere announcement of the withdrawal of the document is in fact a big reputational blow, since such fundamental concessions are not perceived positively in the Georgian political culture, a loyal voter will now be somewhat demoralized, while opponents will be inspired, the executive believes. director of the Center for Systemic Political Research, political scientist Archil Sikharulidze. Here you can clearly see the “compromising” style of the “Georgian Dream”, which is prone to bargaining – it may have already come to some kind of behind-the-scenes compromise, but it is difficult to say how much this will benefit it in the short term.

By itself, the issue of regulating the transparency of funding for NGOs will not go away, Sikharulidze is sure: there is a fundamental struggle in the country for the right to speak on behalf of the Georgian people, and this right is being challenged by the government and parliament by NGOs, many of which are funded from Europe and the United States. Georgian Dream and the government wanted to show voters with this document that NGOs are not its legitimate representatives and do not have the right to choose the course of the country, to influence it, the political scientist believes. At the same time, Sikharulidze notes, it is illustrative that the opponents of the ruling bloc do not demand early elections, since, obviously, they are not yet sure of their victory.

The elections of 2024 are very important for the current political agenda of Georgia, since, obviously, the Georgian Dream has lost some of its popularity, and in the withdrawal of the bill, one can see that its leaders, in particular, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, are experiencing some excitement before the next year, says Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasian sector of the IMEMO RAS.

On the other hand, the situation with the adoption in the first reading and then the withdrawal of the bill may be more of a “political sounding”, a test of the opposition’s resource and the sharpness of the society’s reaction, since it is doubtful that after only two days of not the most numerous protests by Georgian standards, the authorities went for concessions. So, in the summer of 2019, the actions that acquired an anti-Russian and anti-government character after the scandal with State Duma deputy Sergei Gavrilov and ended in the resignation of parliament speaker Irakli Kobakhidze were larger and longer, Mukhanov notes. It is also hardly possible to say that the government and the ruling bloc were frightened, first of all, by external pressure and the threat of sanctions – after all, yesterday it was announced that the document had been sent to the Venice Commission for consideration. For the opposition, this is also a “test of strength” – training to consolidate the protest potential, mobilize supporters, the expert believes.