Citizens have partially calmed down – Newspaper Kommersant No. 202 (7403) of 10/29/2022
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At the end of the month, after the announcement of partial mobilization, the ratings of the authorities returned to the old values. Thus, according to a poll by the FOM, published on October 28, 79% assess the work of Vladimir Putin in his post as good. During the month, the value of this parameter fluctuated noticeably, but now it has been stable for the second week in a row. The ratings of the government and United Russia are even slightly higher compared to those that the polster recorded before the call for reservists began. VTsIOM did not demonstrate any significant changes in similar parameters during the month. The expert believes that society has come out of the “shock state” and has slightly “calmed down”.
On Friday, FOM and VTsIOM published the results of their sociological surveys based on the results of the previous week. They allow us to assess how the mood of Russians has changed a month after the partial mobilization announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 21.
FOM polls are conducted on the last three days of each week. According to the latest measurement, carried out from October 21 to 23, Vladimir Putin’s approval rating was 79%. So many Russians believe that he is doing a good job at his post. 10% of the respondents said that Mr. Putin does not work well, 11% found it difficult to answer this question. These values are comparable to how his work was assessed before the start of mobilization. Thus, according to the results of a poll conducted on September 16–18, 80% of Russians considered the president’s work to be good, and 10% to say it was bad. Over the next four weeks, these values fluctuated markedly. So, according to the results of the measurement from September 23 to 25, only 75% of respondents gave a positive assessment of the president’s activities, a week later it again became 80%, after another seven days – again 75%, but then the value of this parameter again grew to 80%. The number of those who assess Mr. Putin’s work poorly fluctuated less: changes in this parameter did not exceed 3 percentage points. Let us recall that the statistical error of the FOM polls is 3.6%.
Similar changes took place with the ratings of confidence in Vladimir Putin. According to the results of the last measurement, 77% of Russians trust the head of state, 14% do not trust him. Similar values - 77% and 13% – were in the week preceding the mobilization. Then the number of Russians who trust Mr. Putin fell to 74%, after seven days it rose again to 78%, after another week it decreased by 3 percentage points, and by the measurement taken from September 14 to 16, it had grown to 79%. Indicators of distrust hovered around 4%.
The approval ratings for the government’s activities are now even higher than pre-mobilization values. For the second week in a row, 54% of Russians rate the work of the Cabinet as good. In the measurement immediately before the mobilization, this parameter was lower by 2 percentage points. The positive assessment of the performance of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is 58%, which is 2 percentage points higher than in the previous survey and in the week preceding the mobilization. According to the results of the measurement from September 16 to 18, the United Russia rating was 42%. According to the results of the latest poll, 43% of Russians are ready to vote for the ruling party in the elections.
Among the events of the past week that interested them the most, 45% of Russians named the military special operation in Ukraine. In second place is partial mobilization with a score of 10%.
VTsIOM, unlike FOM, publishes polls based on the results of all seven days of the previous week. However, the ratings of this pollster during the mobilization showed much smaller fluctuations. Thus, in case of approval of the president’s activities, they did not exceed 1.5 percentage points. According to the results of the latest measurement, conducted from October 17 to 23, 76.9% of Russians approve of Vladimir Putin’s activities. The corresponding figures for the prime minister and the government as a whole are 52.4% and 52.1%. According to VTsIOM, 80.4% of Russians trust Vladimir Putin, and 62.5% trust Mikhail Mishustin. The electoral rating of United Russia, according to the latest VTsIOM poll, was 40.6%.
Political scientist Aleksey Makarkin explains the stabilization of power ratings and the return to mid-September values by the fact that the “shock state” from partial mobilization has passed and the population has “calmed down”: “The fear that the mobilization will directly affect you or your loved ones has dissipated.” According to the expert, people perceive the authorities not as a threat, but as a protector from an external enemy, so the effect of “rallying around the flag” remains. Mr. Makarkin predicts that by the end of the year the situation is unlikely to change, and then everything will depend on many factors: “Will something as significant happen again? Will fatigue build up? To whom will society’s emotions be directed?
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