China’s exports fall on weakening global demand

Chinese exports in October decreased in annual terms by 0.3%, imports – by 0.7%, the Chinese Customs Department said yesterday. Month by month, both indicators fell more significantly – by 7.5% and 10.4%, respectively. Exports amounted to $298.4 billion, imports – $213.2 billion, both indicators were worse than expected, the reduction in trade turnover was the first since May 2020. In September, export growth was 5.7% year-on-year, while imports showed a slight increase, by 0.3%.

In total, over ten months, deliveries from China increased by 11.1% (to $2.99 ​​trillion), imports into the country – only by 3.5% (to $2.27 trillion). In value terms, the import of energy resources increased – over ten months, the import of coal, with a decrease in physical volume by 10.5%, increased by 37.3%. The volume of imported oil in tons decreased by 2.7%, but increased by 46.6% in monetary terms. The situation is similar with the import of natural gas – minus 10.4% and plus 39.6%, respectively. In exports, deliveries of rare earth metals (plus 71.5%) and cars (plus 67.9%) grew the most in ten months.

The October decline in exports fell on China’s main markets – deliveries to the EU fell by 6% mom and 9% yoy, in the US – by 7.4% and 13%, respectively. Trade with ASEAN countries also “sank” – month on month by 6.5% (but year on year growth remains – plus 20%). In general, for ten months, exports to the EU are in positive territory – an increase of 14%, while imports decreased by 6.3%. Exports to the United States grew by 6.6%, imports from this country – by 0.3%, bilateral trade remains unbalanced – the size of its deficit for the United States amounted to $ 349.3 billion. Turnover with Taiwan amounted to $ 271 billion and increased since the beginning of the year by 2.4%. According to the results of ten months, exports to Russia increased to $59.6 billion (plus 12.8% compared to the same period last year), imports – up to $94.3 billion (plus 49.9%).

Experts note that the decline in Chinese trade turnover is associated with a general weakening of global demand. ING Bank expects export dynamics to remain weak until the middle of next year. Capital Economics also assumes a decline in Chinese exports in the coming quarters and notes that trade dynamics also indicate weakening demand for commodities.

Tatyana Edovina