China’s economy gives warning signals: is a crisis possible?

Western economic institutions and experts are worsening forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2022. While the official target for China’s GDP growth this year is 5.5%, for example, the latest Bloomberg quarterly survey showed that analysts expect an increase of 3. 5%. This is 0.4 percentage points less than the agency’s previous consensus. Rating agencies are doing the same, for example, Moody’s lowered its forecasts for China’s economic growth from 4.5% to 3.5% in 2022.

But there are also more pessimistic estimates. “Against the backdrop of a still struggling real estate sector and the resumption of COVID-19-related restrictions, the Chinese economy will show growth of just over 3% in 2022, although growth may weaken below this mark,” predicted international economist Wells Fargo & Co. Brendan McKenna. Lowered their forecasts and Goldman Sachs – from 3.3 to 3%, Nomura – from 3.3 to 2.8% and other major financial and analytical institutions.