China did not take part in the third meeting on the Ukrainian “peace formula” in Malta

On October 29, at the initiative of Western countries and Ukraine, diplomats from 66 states gathered in Malta to once again discuss the “peace formula” of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. This initiative was rejected by Russia last year and is being discussed for the third time in the absence of Russian representatives.

The negotiations were attended by representatives of the EU, as well as some countries of the global South, which this initiative is aimed at – South American, African, Arab and Asian states. Armenia was present from the CIS countries. As the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Andrey Ermak wrote in his Telegram channel, “specific directions of the peace formula and developments for their implementation were considered.” Particular attention was paid to nuclear and radiation safety, the release of prisoners, energy and food security.

As the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova noted, “such gatherings have absolutely no prospects, they are simply counterproductive.” Any discussion of peace in Ukraine without Russia’s participation, Zakharova added, “will not have added value.”

Similar events were previously held on June 24 in Copenhagen and August 5–6 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. In Copenhagen, the BRICS countries were represented at the negotiations without China and Russia, and the meeting in Jeddah was attended by China, Egypt and the UAE, which refrained from traveling to Malta.

At all such events, Kyiv presented its “peace formula”, consisting of 10 points. Among them are the restoration of the “territorial integrity” of Ukraine, i.e. the withdrawal of Russian troops beyond the 1991 borders, energy security, i.e. the restoration of the Ukrainian energy system, etc.

Ukraine is unable to impose this formula on non-Western states – at the end of the meeting in Copenhagen, the participants only agreed that they had received a good platform for further work. After the meeting in Jeddah, the countries did not present a joint communiqué, but only testified that the basis of any peace agreement should be “respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine” and the supremacy of the UN Charter. At the same time, the special representative of the Brazilian President for International Affairs, Celso Amorim, noted that negotiations on Ukraine are still impossible without Russia.

For Kyiv, it remains a priority to involve various international actors in promoting its vision of resolving the conflict, notes Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government. The Ukrainian leadership understands that its own “peace formula” is unrealistic, but continues to promote it further by organizing such meetings. Kyiv cannot refuse to host such events – for the presidential office this would be tantamount to capitulation. As for the participation in such meetings of countries friendly to Russia like India and China, they sit only in those subgroups of negotiation platforms that are of geopolitical interest to them. There is no need to talk about pulling them over to support Zelensky’s “peace formula,” the expert is sure.

Countries in Africa and Asia understand well what is happening in Ukraine and therefore “do not perceive at all” the so-called Zelensky formula, says Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a researcher at IMEMO RAS. Ukraine is increasingly perceived as a country with no chance of victory in the current conflict, and in Europe the words of opponents of aid to Kyiv, such as Slovakia and Hungary, are beginning to sound louder.

The countries of the global South have no place in their agenda for the Zelensky formula. For Zelensky himself, such events are also an attempt to obtain a collective mandate from countries unfriendly to Russia and remain in power in Ukraine. To do this, it is necessary to share their political plans with non-Western countries, which is what the Ukrainian side does in the negotiations without the participation of Russia. At the same time, Russia’s policy at this stage is more globalized than Ukraine’s policy, including in the global South, the expert says.