Chased for the third – Newspaper Kommersant No. 38 (7483) dated 03/04/2023

Bahrain will host the first race of the 2023 Formula 1 World Championship on Sunday. The second season after the transition to the current technical regulations, it seems, will differ little from the first in the main. Everything must be prepared for the same unconditional dominance of Max Verstappen, who is aiming for a third title in a row.

A year ago, fans were certainly looking forward to the start of the season. The memories of the crazy, even scandalous ending of the 2021 championship were still fresh (Max Verstappen took the title from Lewis Hamilton only in the last minutes of the decisive stage), new technical regulations gave a lot of hopes for an unpredictable shuffling of the established hierarchy, so many were waiting for some kind of completely outstanding fight for the title. In fact, apart from some difficulties at the start of the season, everything came down to the total, indisputable, reinforced concrete hegemony of Verstappen. The Dutchman won 15 of the 22 races of the season (a record that will not soon be improved) and became inaccessible to his pursuers already four stages before the finish line. Although he was actually out of reach by the end of August, when he secured a lead of almost a hundred points.

It is clear that the advantage in technique, which Verstappen used so brilliantly, does not come from nowhere and does not disappear overnight. If we recall the eight-year era of Mercedes dominance, which also began after cardinal changes in the technical regulations, it turns out that the same Red Bull managed to stand on a par with German cars only in the already mentioned 2021. So if anyone hoped that in winter the competitors of the “bulls” would figure out how to defeat them, then they did it, most likely, in the “what if!” mode. However, as the pre-season tests that took place in Bahrain at the end of February show, no “suddenly” can be expected. Red Bull still has the fastest car. Combined with Verstappen’s talent, this is the highest chance for the Dutchman to win a third title in a row. Not surprisingly, for example, Bwin quotes Verstappen at 1.60 versus 5.0 for Hamilton and Ferrari leader Charles Leclerc. The margin of the current champion, apparently, is more than three times.

The confidence that everything will be fine is also felt in the statements of the Red Bull riders. In motorsport, it is customary, in order not to upset sponsors, to say something senselessly positive (“the team has done a great job”, “we have good potential”, “the season is long”, “we have prepared a package of updates and are very counting on it”, etc.). d.). And in general, both Verstappen and the second number of the “bulls” Sergio Perez adhere to this scheme. But after the tests in Bahrain, they still could not help but note that the tests were excellent, everything turns out, the car is good and much faster than last year.

It is clear that a couple of test days does not give a complete picture and, in principle, some surprises are possible. But still, it is somehow naive to bet on the fact that, say, Ferrari or Mercedes deliberately concealed their true speed. It just doesn’t make sense. Moreover, it is harmful, because it simply deprives the team of the opportunity to find out their own potential (we recall that tests cannot be carried out whenever they want, the Bahrain session was generally the only one before the start of the season). So the pessimism that is read in the statements of, say, Hamilton, is most likely unplayed, despite all the love of the seven-time world champion to complain about fate. In particular, he said that while his car is not as fast as it should be, and admitted that he did not know how it would show itself in the first race of the season. Mercedes boss Toto Wolff was more candid, stating that the car has reliability problems (and it also slides in corners and normally, although still slower than Red Bull, rides only on the softest rubber compound), and also that at the moment Mercedes acts as a catch-up. Perhaps in a few races something will change (Gazzetta dello Sport reports that the current version of Mercedes is not final at all and after a few stages it will change a lot). What this will bring is still unclear. According to the 2009 world champion Jenson Button, it is the uncertainty about the prospects of the car that keeps Hamilton from renewing his contract with Mercedes. The agreement expires at the end of the season, and, as Button believes, his compatriot is not just putting himself at risk of howling from constant questions about the contract. “Questions will be asked, it will infuriate him, and the only reason for the delay is that he wants to understand what Mercedes is capable of,” Button is sure.

Ferrari leader Charles Leclerc is not too optimistic either. Last season, he started brilliantly, winning two of the three starting races, but then things went downhill for the Scuderia. Either the car didn’t have enough pace, or the technique failed, or the team suddenly began to come up with solutions that, maybe, seemed to someone to be a cunning plan, but in fact did not work and baffled even the riders of the Italian “stable”. It all cost Ferrari boss Mattia Binotto a job. His place was taken by Frederic Vasseur, and the numerous Scuderia fans can only hope that he will restore order in the camp of the Reds. In the meantime, as Leclerc noted, the car turned out to be fast, but on straight lines. There are problems in corners. Plus, you still need to find the right settings, and the control style had to be changed.

Frederic Vasseur added that one should not draw conclusions from the Bahrain Grand Prix alone, that everything can change. And it is true. For example, do not be surprised if the same Verstappen suddenly does not win in Bahrain. He never won at all. It’s not his track yet. But over the next 23 rounds, the Dutchman will have plenty of chances to score championship points.

Alexander Petrov