Central Bank of the Russian Federation: annual inflation will slow down in April, then it will significantly accelerate again
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In the baseline scenario, annual inflation in Russia will be 5-7% in 2023, will return to 4% in 2024 and will be close to 4% in the future, follows from the forecast of the Bank of Russia. In April, the annual inflation rate will continue to decline, in the following months the current price increase will be more significant.
“In April, annual inflation will continue to decline due to the high base effect of last spring. In the second half of the year, as the low values of monthly growth in the second half of 2022 come out of the calculation of annual inflation, this figure will increase slightly,” the statement says. material Central Bank “Dynamics of consumer prices: facts, estimates, comments (March 2023)”.
“In the following months (after April,— “b”), on the contrary, the low monthly growth rates of the second half of 2022 will gradually come out of the calculation of annual inflation, and the current price increase will be more significant,” the extended commentary says. Accordingly, the annual inflation rate will increase, the Central Bank notes.
In March 2023, annual inflation amounted to 3.51%, which is 7.48 p.p. below the value of the previous month, recalls the Central Bank. Weekly inflation from April 4 to April 10 slowed to 0.11% from 0.13% a week earlier. On a monthly basis, price growth slowed to 0.37%.
Read more in the publication “b FM” “Inflation does not spoil forecasts”.
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