Central Bank estimates GDP growth in Q2 at 4.8% – Kommersant

The growth of Russia’s GDP in the second quarter of 2023 amounted to 4.8%, follows from the assessment of the Bank of Russia. In the third quarter, according to the forecast of the regulator, it will be 3.6%, in the fourth – 1.5%. This is stated in the Monetary Policy Report, published today, July 31st.

“The economy as a whole has almost completed its recovery from the decline in activity in the spring of 2022,” the Central Bank said. The regulator predicts that the GDP growth rate will be 1.5–2.5% in 2023, 0.5–2.5% in 2024, 1.0–2.0% in 2025 and 1.5–2. 5% in 2026. The faster-than-expected recovery is due to strong domestic demand, the Bank of Russia explained.

Recently the International Monetary Fund improved Russian GDP growth forecast from 0.7% to 1.5% in 2023. Economics Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said earlier that the growth of the Russian economy “may be higher” than the 1.2% expected by the ministry. The Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that economic growth in 2023 will be located in the upper half of the regulator’s forecast range of 0.5–2%, announcing an updated forecast.

The slowdown in the decline in GDP, which in the first three months amounted to 1.8%, was facilitated by the restoration of inventories and the growth of government consumption, follows from the data of Rosstat.

Read more in the publication “Kommersant” “GDP argues with forecasts”.

Maria Fedotova