Central Bank analysts revised the forecast for the ruble exchange rate, inflation and the key rate

Analysts surveyed by the Bank of Russia increased the forecast for the average key rate at the end of 2023 by 1.4 percentage points, to 9.3%. Thus, they predict that the key rate in September-December will remain at 12% per annum. In addition, according to analysts, the average dollar exchange rate in September-December will be at the level of 94.8 rubles, reported on site Bank of Russia.

According to analysts surveyed by the Central Bank, in 2024 the average key rate will be 10% per annum, in 2025 – 7.7%. The median estimate of the neutral (real) key rate did not change from the previous macroeconomic forecast and amounted to 6%.

In 2024, analysts expect the average dollar exchange rate to be 89.9 rubles, in 2025 – 90.8 rubles, in 2026 – 92 rubles. (+4.5–6.8% compared to the July forecast).

The median inflation forecast for 2023 was increased by 0.6 percentage points, to 6.3%, for 2024 – to 4.5% (+0.2 percentage points). According to analysts, in 2025 and 2026, inflation will return to the target level of 6.5–8.5%.

Analysts believe that in 2023 Russia’s GDP will increase by 2.2% (+0.7 percentage points from the July forecast). They have not changed their GDP forecast for the next three years and expect this indicator to grow by 1.5% annually. The forecast for long-term GDP growth rates has also been preserved, which, in their opinion, will also amount to 1.5%.

According to surveyed analysts, the average unemployment rate in 2023 will be 3.2% (+0.2 percentage points). In the next three years, they expect unemployment in the range of 3.4-3.5%.

The forecast for the growth of nominal wages in 2023 was also increased – to 11.2% (+1.2 p.p.); in 2024, analysts believe, growth will slow down to 7.8% (-0.1 p.p.) , and in 2025 – up to 6.5% (+0.4 p.p.). Thus, the average salary taking into account inflation (real salary), according to analysts, will increase in 2023 by 5.5%, in 2024 – by 2.3%, in 2025 and 2026 – by 1.9%.

August 15 Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 3.5 percentage points, to 12%. As the Central Bank noted, the decision was made in order to limit risks to price stability. As follows from the review of economic trends in August published by the Bank of Russia, the main reason for the increase in the rate is the halt in the decline in August of trend inflation, commodity prices that are little dependent on the ruble exchange rate, and the growth of corporate lending. The market, unlike the Central Bank, considers the key rate too high, but the consequences of the weakening of the ruble by the end of 2023 will most likely not give the Central Bank the opportunity to reduce it.

More details – in the material “August begins in July”.

Erdni Kagaltynov