Business sets priorities – Kommersant FM

Businesses are revising plans due to the new key rate. On December 15, the regulator raised it again, for the fifth time in six months. Now the rate for banks is 16%, and for entrepreneurs it is even higher. The Central Bank explained the decision by high inflation rates and overheating in the economy. The updated figure should cool demand and discourage borrowing. “Kommersant FM” talked to entrepreneurs and found out whether they managed to achieve this effect. With details – Ivan Yakunin.

The decision of the Bank of Russia did not come as a surprise: price growth in annual terms came close to 7.5%, inflation expectations of the population are high, and business is also skeptical. The economy is short of labor and technology, so supply cannot keep up with demand.

The head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, uses colorful metaphors to describe the situation: “We are driving faster than specified by the design of the car.” In the end, the business has only one way out – to develop without borrowing, shared the CEO of the World Class fitness club network Nikolai Pryanishnikov:

“We will build new facilities mainly at our own expense, but several projects are still planned with targeted funding. Yes, an increase of a few percentage points is a problem, but I would say a small one. I think that this is a tactical decision after all. Yes, over the next year it is most likely that the rate will be high, but after a few years it will decrease.

But speaking about the future and investments in general, of course, it will be harder for business with such a cost of loans.”

It’s still not easy for him: 48% of loans to legal entities, as follows from the Central Bank data, are serviced at a floating rate. That is, the debt burden automatically increased for the fifth time in a row. There are similar dynamics in the bond market.

It is expected that high rates will discourage entrepreneurs. But, for example, they will not stop the general director of the engineering company Uralenergotel, Alexei Belsky: “We have design activities. In any case, projects will have to be financed and included in the cost. There’s not much difference between 15% and 16%, really. That is, plus 1% to the cost, for example, from power engineers, will simply appear in the price of electricity for consumers. This is straight inflation.

Overall this is already high. For example, we have 20 cars that already need to be replaced after COVID-19, but the question is whether we will do it now or not.”

How long the period of high rates will last is still a mystery. The Central Bank says that it has just come to the end of the increase cycle. But the regulator is not going to reduce them quickly, as in 2022. He is committed to bringing inflation to a 4% target next year, so rates will remain high until there are signs of a sustained slowdown in price growth.

As a result, the economy is simply mothballed, says Dmitry Matveev, president of the Kabosh group of companies, who produces cheese: “We have a refund period of a year. That is, we accepted milk today and only after 12 months will we receive money, because it takes six to nine months for cheese to ripen. Therefore, we really cannot live without lending. And, of course, the rates are super prohibitive.

Businesses will receive loans from banks at 22-23%. No one will attract a credit resource under such conditions. It’s not worth it.

What does this mean for companies like ours? Our goal will be to maintain business levels and maintain profitability. There won’t be such intense growth.”

Meanwhile, this year, President Vladimir Putin estimated GDP growth at 3.5%. He called this a very good pace, which, however, was achieved largely thanks to budget expenditures. Next year they will reach 29 trillion rubles. will grow to 36.5 trillion rubles. But for some reason, entrepreneurs still have to reduce their appetites.

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