British expert predicted problems for Kyiv due to the supply of tanks

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed that London would send tanks to Ukraine “to push back Russian troops.” The dispatch of Challenger 2 tanks would put pressure on Germany to agree to the re-export of German Leopard tanks as part of a wider effort to increase military aid to Kyiv.

Rishi Sunak has confirmed that the UK plans to send tanks to Kyiv, which will put additional pressure on Berlin for German authorities to approve a larger supply of armored vehicles for the Armed Forces this week.

In a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Sunak for the first time confirmed Britain’s intention to provide a small number of Challenger 2 tanks to help in the fighting against Russia, The Observer writes. This makes Britain the first Western power to supply Kyiv with main battle tanks.

The move comes as Germany is facing international pressure to allow the delivery of German-made Leopard 2 tanks as part of a plan by Western forces to increase military aid to Ukraine. This would be a major modernization of the Ukrainian armed forces, emphasizes The Observer.

Finland and Poland have said they could send Leopard tanks to Ukraine. However, this step requires the approval of Berlin, and diplomatic negotiations on this issue should take place in the coming days. The German government said it had not yet received an official request to re-export German-made tanks.

After a telephone conversation between Sunak and Zelensky, a spokesman for the British Prime Minister said the offer of Challenger 2 tanks and additional artillery systems was a sign of “the UK’s desire to increase our support for Ukraine.”

“The Prime Minister and President Zelensky welcomed other international commitments in this vein, including Poland’s offer to provide a company of Leopard tanks. The Prime Minister stressed that he and the entire UK government will work intensively with international partners to quickly provide support that will allow Ukraine to use its advantage, ”says a representative of the head of the British cabinet. According to him, Zelenskiy and Sunak “agreed on the need to seize this moment and accelerate global military and diplomatic support for Ukraine.”

Zelensky tweeted that London’s move “will not only strengthen us on the battlefield, but send the right signal to other partners.”

This year, a number of Western powers have already announced a recent increase in military aid to Kyiv. Last week, the United States and Germany said they would provide Ukraine with 50 Bradley and 40 Marder combat vehicles, respectively. France also said it would provide a range of AMX-10 RC light armored vehicles in what appears to be coordinated announcements.

As Jack Watling, Senior Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, writes in an analytical column in The Observer, the prospect of several countries providing NATO-designed main battle tanks to Ukraine opens the way for Kyiv’s renewed efforts to liberate its territory from Russian control. The next six months are likely to be critical to these efforts, the British expert suggests. However, for Ukraine to be able to operate these armored vehicles, it will take more than just supplying tanks to the Ukrainian armed forces. The risk, Watling said, is that if Kyiv commits its reserves to the spring offensive and suffers heavy casualties, it could become vulnerable later this year. “Maximizing the gains made in the spring and limiting offensive casualties among Ukrainians is key to reducing this risk,” the analyst wrote. “NATO armored vehicles such as the Bradleys and Marders, which are already promised along with potential future deliveries of Leopard 2 main battle tanks, would be ideal for this task. In sufficient numbers, these vehicles would protect Ukrainian forces from artillery as they advance. .. The provision of NATO armored vehicles to support the maneuvers would also help eliminate supply constraints faced by Ukraine’s partners in the supply of artillery ammunition. Without armored vehicles, the Ukrainian military is likely to rely more on artillery and therefore use more ammunition to advance. Armored vehicles give Ukrainian forces the prospect of achieving greater success by firing fewer rounds.”

Also, continues Jack Watling, “despite these strong operational reasons for providing Ukraine with armored vehicles, the supply of NATO-designed main battle tanks presents a number of serious problems. The Leopard 2, weighing around 69 tons, and the Challenger 2, weighing 72 tons, are more than 20 tons heavier than the Soviet-designed main battle tanks currently operated by Ukraine. There is little infrastructure in Ukraine that such heavy vehicles can traverse, while their engineering and recovery vehicles are optimized to support Soviet designs. Not to mention the training required to maintain and combat NATO tanks, they would also need to be provided along with combat engineering and mobility support vehicles if they could be used at any scale.”

It’s this assistive technology requirement that makes NATO members willing to offer their vehicles to Ukraine a difficult choice, Watling said. After the Cold War, the tank fleet was significantly reduced, while the reductions in bridging, transport and recovery vehicles were even more serious. Most countries operate the bare minimum of these vehicles to meet their NATO commitments, and even in these small fleets, lack of vehicles due to poor maintenance is a problem.

As a result, Ukraine’s international partners are approaching a difficult fork in the road. For several months, they donated equipment to Kyiv, which they kept in a warehouse. Although these donations were denominated in dollar terms, few of them have had a large financial cost to donors. However, now Ukraine’s partners are faced with the need to invest in rebuilding their capabilities, as well as in support of Ukraine.