Bosnian Serb leader prepares to visit Moscow in May

President of the Republika Srpska (RS, part of Bosnia and Herzegovina) Milorad Dodik may visit Moscow and meet with Vladimir Putin on May 23, two Vedomosti sources in the federal parliament report. According to them, the arrival of Dodik was being prepared since the spring. It is possible that one of the main topics of negotiations between him and the Russian President will be the price of natural gas supplies to the RS.

Vedomosti sent inquiries to the Foreign Ministry and the press secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov. Dodik’s visit to Moscow is scheduled for May 23, Vedomosti interlocutors say.

“It is assumed that he will be received at the highest level, that is, there will be a meeting, including with President Putin,” one of them said. He did not specify the range of possible topics to be discussed. However, another source suggested that it could be about the supply of natural gas to the RS, which is “always a topical issue” for this republic.

Dodik’s visit has been discussed since the end of February. Then the second person in the power structure of the RS came to Moscow – the speaker of the assembly of the republic, Nenad Stevandich. He did not meet with the president, and his most high-profile counterpart in Russia was the chairman of the Federation Council, Valentina Matviyenko. “Stevandich came precisely as part of the preparations for Dodik’s visit. Now the level of contacts, as befits a head of state, will be one level higher,” the Vedomosti interlocutor said.

Dodik is one of the few European politicians who remain openly friendly to Russia. He came to Russia twice after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine – in June and September 2022. The motivation for maintaining close relations with the Russian authorities, however, was motivated by the President of the RS last year as transparently as possible.

During the June meeting at the SPIEF, he bluntly said that “despite the hard day and hard times” he is very pleased that Russia has agreed “until the end of the year to maintain the current price of natural gas under the previous conditions.” He promised to promote Russian investments in RS, and named Zarubezhneft as one of the republic’s key partners, which “preserves investments and jobs.”

Dodik also declares political support for Putin. Commenting on the situation in Ukraine, he told the Russian president that “the West is trying to get into all areas” and the head of the RS is well aware, because his country “has been living like this for 20 years.” It is worth noting that during both visits the Balkan politician represented only RS: the presidium of all Bosnia and Herzegovina is now headed by Zeljka Cvejanović. Bosnia and Herzegovina has been officially a candidate for EU membership since mid-December last year. All the key leaders of the country’s authorities, including representatives of the RS, emphasize in every possible way that their main task is to join the EU as soon as possible.

At the beginning of the year, the possibility of introducing a visa regime with Russia was discussed in the republic, which allegedly could be demanded by European officials. But no public action has been taken in this regard. Dodik and RS officials, on the contrary, performed symbolic actions: they called May 9 “Victory Day and Europe Day”, and also participated in a small procession of the “Immortal Regiment”, which took place in Banja Luka, the capital of the RS, on May 9.

Perhaps Milorad Dodik found himself in a difficult situation with high risks of political isolation and is looking for support in the Kremlin, Anastasia Maleshevich, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO, believes. In March, contacts between RS and the US and British embassies in Bosnia were suspended. Western ambassadors openly accuse Dodik of destabilizing the region, and he, not without reason, claims that Western countries are working to dismantle the Dayton system, that is, to limit the powers of the RS and centralize power in Bosnia.

Finally, Malesevic continues, there is an opinion that Dodik may lose the support of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Under these conditions, Moscow’s help will be of decisive importance for him, but to preserve the current structure of Bosnia under the terms of the Dayton Peace of 1995, simply declarative support will not be enough.