Biologist Severinov told why “disease X” is terrible for humanity

One of the topics that will be discussed on January 17 at the World Economic Forum will be “disease X,” which is called the most likely threat after Covid that can cause a new pandemic. According to some experts, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will seem like flowers in comparison, because the mortality rate for “disease X” may be 20 times higher. Molecular biologist, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Professor Konstantin Severinov told MK where the new diagnosis came from and what it means.

– Konstantin, is “disease X” an existing diagnosis or a hypothetical threat?

– This term was proposed by the American immunologist and infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci, who until recently was the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “Disease X” is non-existent, unknown, hypothetical, but added to the list of especially dangerous infections, which is supervised by the WHO. Fauci thought the “X” sounded especially scary. Allocating a special place for a non-existent disease allows us to make predictions: what will happen if such a disease suddenly appears, and how best to coordinate the efforts of politicians, civil servants, doctors, scientists, epidemiologists, and pharmaceutical companies when a real threat appears. This is very similar to staff scientists without tanks: creating a scenario of the threat of an attack by an unknown enemy from an unknown direction and honing efforts to counter the threat. These are adult games that actually turn out to be very useful. In Russia, by the way, the concept of a sanitary shield has also been developed and is being implemented, the essence of which is to develop a system of measures to increase readiness to counter unknown infections.

– Was this term introduced after the covid pandemic?

– No. Initially, “disease X” was “invented” in 2017, and from the very beginning it was stipulated that the causative agent was unknown. But scientists immediately began to think about what such a pathogen could be. Among the candidates considered were Ebola virus, Zika virus, Hunter virus, and SARS virus. The fact that modeling of a potential SARS epidemic was already being carried out at that time helped us in the fight against its relative COVID-19.

In general, an understanding has emerged that it is necessary to have a set of platform vaccine solutions that can be relatively and quickly adapted to a specific pathogen. The result was the development of RNA vaccines. There was an understanding that the culprit of “disease X” would not be a bacteria (bacteria, despite growing antibiotic resistance, are unlikely to threaten us with a pandemic in the near future), but rather a virus. The idea arose of the need for a detailed study of at least one representative of the main groups of related viruses. If the virus that became the source of “disease X” turns out to be related to the virus that we “previously” studied, we will be better prepared and it will be easier to make vaccines. For example, in Russia a “blank” against SARS was prepared – on its basis, our scientists made a successful vaccine against Covid during the pandemic.

– But some virus still unknown to science could also appear?

– There are really a huge number of viruses, and it is possible that a virus will appear that is not similar to any one known to us. The study of the global virome, that is, the entire diversity of viruses on the planet, in principle allows us to identify such viruses. The corresponding projects are actively developing at the present time, in particular, thanks to brainstorming in connection with disease X. Such work requires the creation of large sequencing centers – determination of DNA and RNA sequences and their analysis using computer biology methods. It is the presence of such centers that has made it possible to virtually detect new variants of the COVID-19 virus in real time and monitor their spread.

The next project is a monitoring system in “hot” spots, that is, places on the planet with high biodiversity or where humanity first comes into contact with the animal world (usually the tropics). The purpose of such monitoring is to track the occurrence of diseases, take samples, and analyze them. The idea is very old, it was first proposed by Louis Pasteur, resulting in the creation of the Pasteur Institute network. In the USSR, a network of anti-plague institutes was created that performed monitoring functions. In the USA there is a system of centers for disease control (CDC). By the way, those “terrible” laboratories in Georgia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, about which so much was written in the media, used to be part of the Soviet monitoring system. Viruses know no political boundaries, and the whole world must fight them. Therefore, the principle of openness and exchange of information among institutions involved in epidemiological monitoring is fundamental. One of the problems with the last pandemic was that at first the Chinese withheld information about the outbreak in Wuhan. So the theoretical concept of “What if?” very useful. COVID-19 was also “Disease X”, and the mind games started in 2017 helped in counteracting it

– Where can we expect the emergence of a new “disease X”?

– It is highly likely that such a disease will come from the global South. These are poor countries; they cannot independently provide the monitoring for which funds are needed. As a rule, they go through the WHO or the World Bank. On the other hand, trouble can come from unexpected places. For example, due to global warming, permafrost is thawing in our north. Potentially, this could lead to us coming into contact with new viruses and bacteria that have been preserved in the natural refrigerator for tens of thousands of years.

– Can you name five potential candidates for the new “disease X”?

– This is a thankless task. A lot of viruses have the potential to cause mischief, each of them can show us Kuzka’s mother. This could be the Zika virus, a new variant of the influenza virus, some new coronavirus, the Ebola virus, or some less exotic hemorrhagic fever, for example, the Crimean fever, or the one that is endemic in some areas of Bashkiria. It will almost certainly be a zoonotic virus that will come to us from animals. Just as HIV once came to us from monkeys, and COVID-19 from bats. But it is impossible to predict this transition in advance. It is always a matter of a coincidence of circumstances, extremely unpleasant for humanity, but extremely successful for the virus.

MEANWHILE

…Scientists have long predicted that viruses carried by bats carry high risks of a new pandemic. They pose no harm to the mice themselves; they harm people who encroach on their habitat. Bats are the main reservoir of viruses: some estimate there are 72,000 of them. Scientists don’t fully understand why this is so, but they note the superpowers of bats to collect viruses. They most likely spread viruses through their saliva, urine, blood and feces. These viruses can then enter humans through direct contact or through other animal hosts (pig, chimpanzee or civet).

The more people move into the habitats of bats, which are breeding grounds for deadly viruses, the more they pave the way for the next global pandemic. Reuters has identified areas in 113 countries on all continents, covering more than 9 million square kilometers, where all the conditions for a new disaster have been created. For example, in Laos, scientists have already discovered viruses similar to the one that causes COVID-19. Since 2018, India has already seen outbreaks of the deadly Nipah virus (also a gift from bats) three times. Outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg have become a regular occurrence in West Africa as more miners cut down trees in search of gold, iron ore and other minerals.

In addition, scientists view Brazil as a likely cradle of a future pandemic. Rapid destruction of tropical forests has left 1.5 million square kilometers of land ripe for human infection by the bat-borne pathogen. This is more than in any country.

…The results of an analysis by scientists from Duke University showed that today the probability of encountering a new pandemic during one’s lifetime is 8%, but in the coming years the figure may increase severalfold.